Who are you going to believe? "A trading edge is the easiest thing?" http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2478826#post2478826
so now we have an interesting phenomena - I suppose most ETers have a sense that going to the casino and pulling the 1-arm-bandit is not a career. But because they don't know what they don't know (they don't have an edge), they passionately persue this trading thing as if it's a career, lol. they keep pulling that lever, disciplined enough that they promised they will - never put more than 4 coins in any 1 pull; never continue playing if they have lost 100 coins for the day; let the winner run and keep playing if they win 200 coins for the day; have a written business plan about pulling the lever; exercise everyday so they have a fresh mind when pulling the lever; go to college to have the right degree to be better in pulling the lever; The list goes on.
wrong - now you are arguing along the lines that a risk:reward of 1:1000 alike is a money tree. you need to take Stats101.
The important discipline here is that unless no edge, you should keep trading simulated until it is found. Then and only then, is that cash should be used. On the other hand, it goes without saying that it is much harder to apply in CASH what you found in the simulator. ....and in there lies paradox.
forgot the other thing they promised to do - they will always play a machine that has great risk:reward. i.e. a machine that may spit out 1000 coins for a bet of 1 coin.
good point! you bring up an important issue, you need infinite or huge wealth, for some of this to work. this again confirms that in trading, it REALLY PAYS to play, if you're ALREADY wealthy and/or rich. sorry, that's life . . . i know it's sad, but i'd rather know the truth. it is great fun though, and, if you're good at it, maybe you can do fairly well. some poker players are pros, but it's not for everyone. you need the skills, and especially the right personality for that. a lot of them do other things in life too here are some interesting graphs on lotteries. r6.ca/blog/20090522T015739Z.html that's where psychology kicks in. you really have to stay focused, and, above all, centered.
actualy, this was proven some years ago. A group of Ph.D. students were a given a "system" with a positive expectancy and over 90% lost all their money. I have seen this study crop up again and again. Even with an edge, you need very disciplined money and trade management, or you still face a very high Risk of Ruin (RoR) Such as, A 60-40 system, where the trader/gambler keeps double or nothing, will on average be out of $ in only 2 or 3 trades.
When trading, you have the right to be the casino, that's the difference. I am sure casino owner really see their job as a career, right? What is the job you ended up doing when you pulled the trigger on this trading/casino thing? Serious question.
I know there are people scouting the globe for any lottery that has the 'expected value' above the face value when the jackpot has grown big enough. This is a valid business model... it's simple Stats101... amusingly enough most ETers never took Stats101 (notice I didn't say sadly)