1) You need to understand the rules for example only trade when x plus y occurs not just x, since only x + y = $. Only trading x reduces probability of success. Note: I traded only on x, and the market moved against me, and then I averaged into a trade finally turning it around since y did occur after the fact. 2) Have some type of money management since although x plus y gives good probability, they will not work 100% since there is no holy grail so you need to decide if you are getting ripped by the market, where are you willingly to take a loss. I used to use heavy margin and when I got a margin call, I knew it was time to go to zero margin. Thats about it, 2 simple rules, if you can follow them, you can make money.
When I started trading, I had no idea what was involved. My guess is that most people who get into trading are the same. If I had known that almost no one becomes profitable, even after many, many years, I may have done something else. It is also possible that I may have tried anyway as my ego would have told me to look how well I had done at school, etc. in the past. One of the seductive things about trading is how easy it looks after the day is over. In hindsight, the moves are crystal clear. When I first started, I thought how easy this was going to be. Why have I kept going for so long? A part of the answer is that it is not easy to quit after spending years on something. However, the real answer is that profitability so often seems to be just around the corner. Over and over, I have devised plans that I thought would win only to be disappointed the next short period of time. So where is all this leading? There may be a very small number of people who have a relative or acquaintance, who is profitable, who is willing to teach a new trader. All other new traders should be willing to spend a lot of years with no certainty that they will ever be profitable or find something else to do.
Hi A, How long have you been searching and what approaches have you tried that ultimately failed? What did you study and what do you do for a living? Are you finding success in the markets now? If you don't want to discuss on ET feel free to PM me. Regards Johno
actually this was proved in an academic experiment years ago. A number of Ph.D students were given a system with positive expectancy. yet after trading, about 90-95% lost all their money. Why? Money management. So you first need an edge. THEN you need to become a student of good money/trade/portfolio management.
I think this thread is misstitled. It should be: If an Oscar* is hard to win, why actors keep acting? *By Oscar we can also mean a well paid and successful acting carrier.
Let's say we're Formula 1 car owners/drivers. Both of us have the cars (capital) We both have drivers & quality mechanics. So far, there's no 'edge' for either side. But 1 of my top mechanics has figured out how to grind the cylinder heads in a certain way that will give my car an extra 15 hp. If everything else is comparable, I now have an 'edge' over other car owners/drivers. The same applies to the markets or any other competitive endeavor. A 'little' thing here, another little thing there and pretty soon these little edges add up to a solid, consistent money-making edge. What edges can be found in the market? There are many types. From equipment to trader experience to capital access to support to intellectual capital. All these areas have many, many single points where someone can find a 'small' edge over a competitor. Now, 1 'edge' alone will rarely be significant enough to produce substantial results. But add up 5-10-15 individual advantages and pretty soon you become a formidable competitor.
there is no 'edge'. you think slapping your fav 3 indicators on a chart is THE edge?? LOL the edge is money management. cut your losers quick and let your winners run. thats only edge you'll ever find