if china floats the yuan

EliteThink · Apr 19, 2005

The u.s.'s assets and products are often intangibles. Granted much of our economy is service oriented on the domestic side but America's major exports are intellectual property, business skills/planning, software capabilities and technology research and development.

steeldust · Apr 22, 2005

well, the market somehwhat showed an answer thursday. when greenspan yacked about china and the yuan the USD got stronger and the yen today is alot stronger(against USD). kinda interesting. i think this is one of the few times there was a reaction based on someone talking about it. ths USD rally was short lived though.

Retired · Apr 22, 2005

Due to the huge inbalance of men vs women in China, there will be a strong evolutionary selection pressure on the Chinese population. In the coming decades, only the smart, tall, good-looking men will be able to get a wife.

So in one generation, don't be surprised to see Chinese people getting much smarter, taller, and better looking.

Watch out, Japan!

Quote from TGM:

There are flaws in China to be sure. The largest flaw is the ratio of women to men. There is a HUGE number of men compared to women as a result of the one child policy. This will cause friction. In fact, this is the largest imbalance in known history (sorry I do not have the actual numbers handy). Of course Chinese boys prefer Chinese girls (everyone likes their own kind) and the women there will get anything they want.

We see this in other parts of Asia as well but not quite the ratio in China. Societies with such an imbalance tend to go to war historically. Who knows what will happen with this much of an extreme. To top it off if you are a Chinese parent or grandparent are you going to send your only son ---your legacy to war.....well that is another problem. Chinese one child policy may yet cause a revolution.

Another challenge is the new Chinese strategy of trying to guilt trip others when in disagreement. They learned this from the Political Class in the West. Western textbook are full of propaganda aimed at guilt tripping children into submission later on in life. I wont go into now. But I was raised around alot of far left ideas (way to left of most democrats---like marxist--ironic that trade futures for a living --eh!).

Anyway, China is now copying this strategy against Japan. Of course, it has yet to succeed. It is very flawed and will self destruct--because China cannot control Japans textbooks nor can they control the interpretation of Japanese history in Japan. This worked in the west simply because the political class hates the West ---and it was done "in house".

On the financial front, one must have a developed govt bond market to be a reserve status currency. China will develop this ----and it is currently in the process. This type of thing is not an overnight affair. They also need a debt futures market. To my knowledge, they know all this and are working on it. They think long term ---which is their strength.
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drsteph · Apr 22, 2005

Last time I checked it was the short fat guys with the billions who ultimately got the hotties.

mercure160 · Apr 24, 2005

Quote from Retired:

Due to the huge inbalance of men vs women in China, there will be a strong evolutionary selection pressure on the Chinese population. In the coming decades, only the smart, tall, good-looking men will be able to get a wife.

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due to rapidity of technological evolution, biology evolutionnary has become irrelevant. we will be to integrate technology in brains far quicker than any biology selection will lead to higher intelligence.

illiquid · Apr 24, 2005

News over the weekend from chinese officials significant?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aQOqj5SKK_0A&refer=top_world_news

scalp100 · Apr 24, 2005

anyone interested in starting a yuan hedgefund?

Here's how it works open an account in China with a bank. Take the dollars people give you to invest and dump it in the bank account in China, of course they will convert it to yuan in your chinese bank account. Then we just sit back kick the feet up and wait. When they adjust or float we wire the money back to us and close the fund with a nice return.

We make our 2 and 20 and retire.

Baruch · Apr 25, 2005

Quote from libertad:

China has core advantages that the US is not able to match...

the government is more tolerant of capitalism...

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I like that one. Maybe you vote for the american communist party to get some more capitalism?

Retired · Apr 25, 2005

A better strategy, buy Chinese real estate. You get some nice appreciation as well.

That's what the smart ones are doing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

Quote from scalp100:

anyone interested in starting a yuan hedgefund?

Here's how it works open an account in China with a bank. Take the dollars people give you to invest and dump it in the bank account in China, of course they will convert it to yuan in your chinese bank account. Then we just sit back kick the feet up and wait. When they adjust or float we wire the money back to us and close the fund with a nice return.

We make our 2 and 20 and retire.
More...

TGM · Apr 25, 2005

Quote from Retired:

A better strategy, buy Chinese real estate. You get some nice appreciation as well.

That's what the smart ones are doing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
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I have heard real estate has been bid out of sight in some parts of China?? Do you have any numbers? I would imagine realestate there would be a great long term investment ---especially if you get a panic over something happens to buy on the cheap. China will see a panic or hard times or something to create a buying oppty and I plan buying when it occurs---specially equities.