Guys, how about taking the hopium out of the pipe. Im not saying BTC going to zero, cause it aint, as Ripple, Doge, XLM, ADA are still around with significant communities. So is Amway. Im not even saying that it's not going up. But the reality is that risk on assets, and especially crypto, received a historical record liquidity injection from stimy checks, SBA loans and Fed swap lines. And BTC could not even break $75k. It's just taking way too much economic mass to move it, a digital store of value whose selling proposition is Number Go Up, but now with 75% dips (maybe?) instead of 85%. It's just hard to ignore the reality that whoever is buying BTC even at $20k is kinda late to the party. This assumption that Fed is about to turn the printing press right back on is just an assumption, aside from the fact that the Fed cannot & does not "print money". Stimy checks feel like they should come back as well, but really we don't know how long this asset deflation pressure will be kept on. There is actually plenty of liquidity sitting on the sidelines, but it's staying in low super safe assets, waiting for the riskier assets to crash. I do also expect that the Fed will at least have to pivot their market sentiment tool of Fed Funds Rate. But Im not seeing signs that we will see another COVID stimulus of what we recently experienced. Regardless, Crypto will attract liquidity but this time around, actual results & metrics from the tech will be what the investors are looking for. User activity, user adoption, time spent, etc. Same metrics used for Web 2.0. BTC is dead in the water on that game, ETH is at the forefront along with other L1s.
I get what you're saying and your perspectives are very compelling I've been reading a bunch of hard money books lately (latest one I'm on is the 7th property) then 1 day, I saw a video on YouTube that gave me an aha moment (below) All assets are money. Inflation is a great thing for Bitcoin and all assets If BTC goes to $100k, Eth could go to $10k at the same time. Maybe ETH goes to $15k All other crypto assets could go much higher as well They are not competing for the same limited risk capital. Stock Market could go up well above 40% (giving it a lower return as that's been it's comparative performance to crypto assets) What we don't want is devaluation (using deflation would be confusing) of all assets They all go down, stock market, bond market, crypto assets, real estate I like this new view because it explains our current bear market situation in all markets, stocks, bonds, cryptos, and real estate starting to go down as well It does not seem to contradict all the books I've been reading Perhaps, as you say, hopium. We shall see. As long as we have capital to survive the next 2-3 years, we shall see if the bull market will come back as it always had in the past Video is below
They absolutely are, it's all competition for liquidity and the better players will tie up liquidity with higher velocity, keep it looping within their ecosystem for longer than others, and maybe even create true value, by however you want to measure it. You bring up the Stock Market, which I have considered a joke for years, and also an inferior money game when compared to crypto. I also have a thesis, shared by quite a few, that even in the case of liquidity contraction, such as we are experiencing now, many will jump ship from equities to crypto, in search for higher potential gains, as well as being attracted by actual technological advancement. The game theory, the involvement, the narratives were already levels above in crypto this previous bull cycle, and now are being developed even further. Whether money printer goes burr again, or the much needed asset deflation continues, Im under the belief that the simple Number Go Up Cause Inflation, is not a compelling selling point anymore. Gotta bring more to the table to attract that liquidity.
Something I've been pondering. When this current inflation/recession/bear market starts to ease, where will money waiting to be invested go? After the GFC, it was the stock market that took off. Maybe this time crypto will get a big slice of the action.
Yes but really it just shows the clown world we live in, and how nonsensical the whole monetary system has become. In terms of price performance relative to time, plenty of other coins that are still around & leave BTC in the dust.
Why does the nominal number matter, it's all about the number of Xs you get and in the smallest time frame. Check price performance of BTC vs the other coins that had significant push & investment behind it, from the previous bear market bottom till now. ETH beats it hands down and that's just a start. And the best performing coin, in terms of gains, is actually HEX. 10,000x in less than two years, from low to recent ATH.