At that level, most crypto lords will be out of the game. So I don't think that it will consolidate there, it will collapse if it reaches that level. The horde of crypto boys waiting to buy the dip is not enough to hold the price, imho.
Hodlr's have all but forgotten that there is now an entirely new group of holders... Johnny Q. Public wants to minimize losses and will sell into rallies. Johnny Q is not a hodlr. It's one of those "careful what you wish for"... those crypto gurus and diamond hand genies got what they wanted. The dream of crypto funds was fulfilled. The dream of acceptance by reputables like Fidelity and others was fulfilled. And the FOMO was marketed directly to Johnny Q. Now, JQP just wants to minimize loss.
You seem to have forgot that BTC already flash-crashed down to the 17K level... and jumped up because your theory is bogus. Too many buyers at that level. If it ever goes to 10K, this will be due to the crashing equities which will be due to the rising interest rates. If the fed does the opposite with rates and panics because of recession/depression, crypto may go to the moon again.
I've never understood the crypto hype. I've never traded anything related to it. I have a friend who bought 1 share at around 40k. I've never seen her so depressed.