If 80% lose why you think you can make it?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by NYSEtradinglog, Sep 24, 2003.

  1. 1) I LOVE it - and have unlimited drive and determination
    2) Im a computer whiz
    3) Im smart "enough", using many metrics
    4) I've already proven to myself that I can find real tradeable edges in the markets.
    5) I have guys like Acrary that inspire me :D
    6) I have enough resources, time and $$$, I am not underfunded

    peace

    axeman
     
    #41     Sep 24, 2003
  2. 1. I LOVE myself.
    2. GOD LOVES me.
    3. Everyone else doesn't give a F*CK about me.

    The 3 are equally important. Yes, even #3...
     
    #42     Sep 24, 2003
  3. Skills specific to one being a good or even great trader may be hard to nail down considering the range of the human personality.

    I think that trader income (success) differences fall into normal patterns of distribution similar to some other occupations. With the important difference that traders, unlike most other occupations, can have negative income! Thus the horror stories about day trading.

    Take the commissioned sales staff of a water bed showroom. They may have 10 sales guys divided up over different shifts to cover the store. You always have a top couple of guys that make the bigger six-figure income consistently and who could sell anything. The larger middle group that have some better months and slack months, and the bottom couple of guys that just don't have their heart in anything they do and eventually get cut.

    Considering trading is self-employment, many personality types may not be compatible too. Thus compulsive people that follow their proven system and that have strong drive to be a self starter may do best.
     
    #43     Sep 24, 2003

  4. Yep, I'll say it. No brainer.
     
    #44     Sep 24, 2003
  5. yup, i totally agree. as frustrating as learning to trade is, i DO make progress. every 6 months or so i look back and realize that i've made major improvements. at the present moment you just don't know what the future ones will be...but they will happen if you keep at it.
     
    #45     Sep 24, 2003
  6. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    I had no fear of not making it when I started trading.
    This is not my first business. I have had worse odds.

    Gann, I feel sorry for you. Nothing to love but yourself and god?

    Bob and I love each other more than we love ourselves. :) :)
     
    #46     Sep 24, 2003
  7. I thought his post was funny too.

    Most people posting in this thread are saying similar stuff.

    A recent post of his related to staying in a trade over night. I thought it was funny too. He proved that in a context of doubling margin (the diference between intraday and interday) there might possibly be a play that would work over night. His answer said exit, but the actual reason was not fully developed at all.

    No one is trading today what they traded 10 years ago. No one will be trading 10 years from now what they currently trade.

    In five years the edge business will be out of the picture. People today are seeing it fade. The author of the thread is making a small fraction of apoint aday if he is trading the ES. As a non compounded rule of thumb, a point a day on one contract makes you 250% a year using margin as the capital. 1/2 point is 125%; 44% in two years (skip flat last 6 months) turns out to be 1/10 of a point a day average over two years.

    If a person still uses an edge approach to trading and he deems himself successful, say as this person does, you can see that almost no one makes money in futures trading. 1/10 of a point average a day is not success. The person cannot ever find this out, however. How could he? Not possible. So scratch all the people in this category as people who wioll learn to make money.

    So what is in the cards to be a winner.

    It is not brains.

    Not discipline.

    Not an edge.


    Logic is what gets a person there. Logic does not work for anyone whose head is filled with myths and/or is mentally stuck. Baggage and garbage in the mind makes it opaque forever.
     
    #47     Sep 24, 2003
  8. Hawker

    Hawker


    Man !! Congrats for your new boat !!
     
    #48     Sep 24, 2003
  9. m&m&m

    m&m&m

    How about 10$ from 1000$ equals 0.1% ? :p
     
    #49     Sep 24, 2003
  10. TD80

    TD80

    Totally agree. The problem is the intelligent/book smart person doesn't like to be wrong. I struggled with being wrong for a long time in trading, the mechanics of my methodology worked *most* of the time. There were setups that were textbook that would go wrong, and I kept my risk in check but the problem was that it would destroy my confidence. My thoughts were: my ingenius methodology fails on a textbook setup, something is wrong... the market is wrong... This is where things go waaay down hill, if you ever hear yourself saying "The market is wrong", it's time to either quit this business altogether, or take some time away from the market to regroup! Luckily I regrouped, and slowly started to accept I'm wrong all the damn time. I accept that things could change in the midst of the trade after I entered that would prevent it completing as planned. My biggest key to getting over this barrier was playing poker, years of hold'em. Once I was cleaning out everyone all over the place, I decided I was ready to return to the ring of the markets.

    Goodluck,

     
    #50     Sep 24, 2003