i was wondering everybody keeps saying 40 percent down, and thats it. but if this isnt a usual bear market, something like 1929 or .com implosion, shouldnt we be way lower and the bottom is more like 80 pecent from the highs. if you think of how the credit bubble inflated prices, and p/es that we think were low were actually really artifically inflated, we were as high as 2000's in p/e wise and we never knew it. so doesnt it beg the question, we could go lower, and way lower.
If the cash hoarding intensifies, all bets are off. Money stopping circulating is what causes depressions, tanks equity values in that cataclysmic realm, and causes depressions....and it is happening now whether some refuse to admit it or not. You can throw all assumptions and metrics and indicators out the 60th story window when cash is hoarded and those who still have jobs lay awake at night wondering if they will tomorrow. The government is entirely and glaringly INCOMPETENT in the manner it's handling this crisis. The 'bailout' is a malignant child born of nepotism and incompetence - a toxic combination.
Welcome back, c-kid, cold, jasonn, triggger, etc.. It's been a whole week since you've created a new username.
I know.......history isnt always the same, and we shouldnt blindly follow assumptions. But Im just thinking of how bad it could go. Like in 2000-2003, it was just 8 years ago, the nas went down 80 percent, and who knew where it could have gone, if it wasnt for the war, it wasnt the end of the world. Im just wondering, are we kidding ourselves that markets cant go below 50 percent from its high, b/c it wasnt to long ago when the nas fell 80 percent from its high.
There is a point to this post. Its not just scare tactics. We all look at the market in terms of the S&P or the DJIA or even the NYSE comp, but what about the Nasdaq COMPQ? The naz went from 5100 to 1200 in just two years. Will that happen again with the S&P and the DJIA?
This market is about 1/2 way to where it will terminate. SnP mid 400 is when you should mortgage and buy everything in sight.
To me, Robert Pretcher makes the most amount of sense right now. For a long period of time I disliked his message as I saw him as negative. However, he is best guide to this crash that I have yet seen. Essentially, he sees this as a 1929 style depression, with us being in year 1930. Lots of money to be made selling the rallies. And some money to be made buying the counter trends. If interested, check out elliottwave.com P.S. remember that there was alot of innovation that came from the last great depression....the era of aviation as one example. Hope that helps.