So much agree. Experience matters. I got 15+ years of the same instrument. I have seen it evolve over time as the Open Cry Pit closed, the demise of the "boxcar" and rise of the "mini", the spoofing of DOM, the rise of Euro:USD and drop of volume, the growth of alogs etc. I like to see it as it forms, aka price action to get extra precision. A static chart, or a snapshot is not the same. Usable, but not as precise for me. It is a bit like a fishing guide. Different every day, but seasonal patterns play out, different every season, but all of them the "same". The goal is to get into the fish every day and never get skunked. This is where experience and time "on the local waters" matters. There is no substitute. Inexperienced people want, easy solutions, applied universally in conditions and universally in time. It simply does not work that way. It would be like playing golf with one club. Doable for an expert, laughable for a newbies to try. And good for chuckles when they insist that is "how they are going to do it, because they are so smart".
Hey there mute9003, taowave's advice in post #20 was very good. From the chart you posted with labels in post #4 it looks like you trade Heiken Ashi charts using breakouts beyond resistance and support. Best thing to do is scroll back to a past date and then start moving the chart forward one candle at a time. Note the breakouts that fit your rules as they form on the right edge and then play them out to completion. Keep refining the rules as you see what worked and what didn't. This activity becomes a kind of regular practice and training that I think is very important. I do it every week. Best wishes to you.
A child to take shots is an extreme case and I would compare it to hedging not trading. The simple fact is when a trend or a pattern has formed (stage 2)you have high probability. Before it form(stage 1) you have low probability. If you bet on stage 1 you bet on low probability. The example in your post that you identify a trend changing with high degree of percentages suggests it is in stage 2.
I'm flabbergasted by your intelligence and ability to conceptual thinking. Even after my pipe Happy holidays! Bye
You need to have the patience to wait for simple candle stick patterns to form on the right side of the chart. For example a silver pin. There are many more. The main benefit of these types of patterns are that they are non lagging and give you an indication on what will happen in the future. Many other TA patterns do have lag and maybe only 50% win rates like crossovers. You want to only use TA or PA that actually helps improve your win rate to at least 55% or higher with equal risk vs reward. You want to remove from your charts any duplicated TA indicators or any indicators that don't help you make a decision. Also, you can then use automated stops and targets if you are like me and don't want to watch the trade after you get in it.