Commercials know of and react to events much earlier than it gets reported on ANY news outlet like Reuters or Bloomberg Commercials ALWAYS have an information advantage.
Even if they get information faster, they are still reacting. Unless you're claiming that Bank of America is controlling the coronavirus? Or JP Morgan knows the intentions of Iran? Btw, have you ever watched a tick chart around a major data release? Nothing happens before the time of the release. It takes at least 1 second.
You posted one hour charts of the Japanese Yen in your OP. By your logic - a retail currency speculator with a news feed has the same information advantage as The Bank of Japan or the Sumitomo and Daichi Bank Trading Desks. You’re absurdly naive
I'm not even watching news when posting those charts. I know that a recent trend could change at any time if a larger fundamental force acts on it. I'm just trying to get a quantitative grasp on what's been going on recently. It would be impossible to have the same information as they do. And if you leave it at that, you might as well quit and call it impossible. Perhaps watching what the recent trend is could give a chance of getting the odds to above a 50% coin toss. If you combine 60% odds with lots of money and leverage, you could make a healthy profit in theory.
As @bone said, your understanding is flawed. At the very least, too simplistic and narrow. As a simple example, take an index or even a sector ETF. They are mandated to own either a specific, or a limited, percentage of a single component, regardless of price. This has nothing to do with supply/demand or "usefulness" of the component beyond merely being a component. Or try explaining this week's near 10% price drop in sugar futures on simple supply/demand? It's coming off of 3yr highs btw. And not to be overlooked... You can still get a pet rock for $19.95!! https://www.petrock.com/
LMAO, no. I’ve traded billions of dollars in production assets as a trader on a Commercial Energy desk earlier in my career.
If you want to go that route, a correct statement would be... A PERCEPTION, whether a truth or a falacy, precedes money. Perception is NOT news and occurs constantly.