Identifying trend

No, just the opposite. You are running backwards. "TREND" as far as trading is concerned quite literally implies 'the big picture' - and how are you going to determine that modeling snapshot short term data?

 

Because whatever fundamental forces that were moving USD/JPY in 2013 have nothing to do with today.

 

Actually on long timeframe, they are more meaningful but you need to tie it to some fundamental factors.

 

If that were true, then nobody would care about previous highs and lows.

Your OP phone screenshots show a couple days of data at best - how does that capture “trend” and fundamental forces at work ?

The big Commercials whose order flow moves markets and whose information advantage is, quite literally, the fundamental forces you mention -
are they using hourly data over a couple days as their reference? Since I myself traded commercially a couple times in my career, I’ll tell you - HELL NO.

 

My few days of screenshot doesn't capture fundamental forces. I'm claiming that perhaps this trend captures what is going on under the current forces (at least until some other fundamental force comes into play).

I still do not agree that trends can be drawn on forces from 2013.

Those commercial institutions may be the people that move price, but they are not the origin. They are reacting to their perceptions of the news, data, etc.

 

Ummm, yeah they are. Commercials are the origin. Commercials by definition are users and producers on an industrial scale. They accumulate and distribute the underlying. Your understanding of what market participants do is flawed.

 

Here's my point of view...

The price of anything is determined by supply and demand.

What drives demand? What causes people (such as commercial institutions) to want to put money in something? Primarily, it's the usefulness of the item in question.

For example, if lots of new construction is going on, it will increase the cost of building materials due to demand from builders. But it's the usefulness of the building materials that happens first, and the money from the builders flows secondarily from that.

That's why in markets, lots of money will flow from news reports, data, etc. because it affects the sentiment of the commercial institutions. They are often following the news/data.

 

Your conviction that Commercials have the same requirements of and access to the same news and information sources as the public is strikingly naive.

 

Either way, they're still reacting to it right? Unless you're a conspiracy theorist?