Identifying trend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by farmerjohn1324, Feb 12, 2020.

  1. I am going to ask some questions that may seem elementary, but I feel it's best to ask them.

    For now...

    I mentioned previously about looking for a minimum slope to see a trend. But in addition to this, you can look at the same chart and stretch or shrink it vertically and the trend will look bigger or smaller. I will now post 3 pictures of the same chart, differing only by the amount I stretched it vertically.

    Thoughts? Is there a "normal"?
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. USDJPY

    USDJPY

  3. padutrader

    padutrader

    yes
    there is a normal.

    the normal is you going to your business and conducting your buissiness

    what you are doing in this site is abnormal.

    i am not going to post in any of your threads.

    if you want to know why PM me

    i will reply to that PM,if it is born, on the week end when i am not trading
     
  4. %%
    Checking out your charts; on the pics/price readable right now. NO more chart clicks for now.Paul Tudor Jones said he avoids the meat of the middle.:caution::caution:,:caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution: When that trend starts trending like MAR 2000,middle chart,think about tight stops + let the QQQ market take you out or keep trending. I like the open + middle+close myself.
    Mainly position size it, like learning with 1 share of MSFT, or IBKR fractional share;n t something with huge bid ask, but top trender, like FNGU,or [SDOW= short trade+ i seldom do that one]may want to sell early, or avoid it. I tend to avoid stuff like FNGU , mostly.......................................................................................LOOK @ so much data , it slows you down reading all the data.SPY + UPRO........ are liquid like i like.............................................................................................................SPY had less drawdowns in 2000-2002 bear, than QQQ.ut anything can happen on 5 minute/NOISE chart
     
  5. easymon1

    easymon1

  6. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    A market "trend" is a human construct that is only available post hoc and as defined. Trends do not exist outside of this construct -- has you have shown in your posted charts.

    The magic word here is pareidolia -- or making a resurgence, apophenia. There are some great sites/studies around on the web -- but simply having knowledge of the phenomenon is quite powerful (or, humbling!)...

    https://explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2048:_Curve-Fitting
    At any rate, the post hoc calling of a trend is mostly a matter of convenience -- we do it all the time. (We *need* to, or else we'll be calling slope and time parameters all over the place. Sheeesh!) But as soon as you paint that trend going forward (as a fact, and not a convenient tactical assumption), you've committed pareidolia.

    The worst is doing it post hoc...
    [​IMG]
     
  7. True if you looked at the numbers. But not by just eyeballing it.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. easymon1

    easymon1

    what's your point?
     
  9. Is this not sound logic...

    EUR/USD has been going down consistently over the past 2 weeks. Therefore, it will continue to go down (based on the same forces causing it to go down) unless a greater force acts upon it.

    ?????
     
  10. Idk.

    Then is there a minimum slope I should look for?
     
    #10     Feb 12, 2020