This is for the folks who still think discipline can't provide an edge in blackjack: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=221709 Jim Wortman, a former Atlantic City casino executive and nationally recognized gaming expert, said it was entirely plausible for one player to win so big at the blackjack tables - if he had sound knowledge of the game, deep pockets and exercised self-discipline. "There are a lot of people who have the knowledge and who have the bankroll, but they fall short of discipline and start changing to losing hands," said Wortman, gaming director at the Conrad N. Hilton College of Hotel and Restaurant Management at the University of Houston.
I've already read that, but all it shows is that this guy was lucky. Nothing to do with self discipline (he said he doesn't count cards, and the pit bosses are no doubt keeping their beady eyes on him at all times). Also, he benefited from a 20% cashback deal on his overall losses which makes playing bj a positive ev experience.
I've read the whole thread. Conspicuously absent is any definition of EDGE. Bottomline for any endeavor - you can't define it, you don't understand it. Welcome to ET. Same shit different thread same idiots all losing loads of dough and strongly in the 95% losers category. That's why many have given up coming here to learn - there is nothing to learn here, just pages of nonsense guaranteed to make one lose even more money. Right-click on thread/send to / Recycle bin
There seems to be 2 different questions throughout the thread: 1) How do you identify an edge (how do you create an edge for yourself to trade with) 2) How do you know you have an edge? The first one, only time, experience and hard work will give you. The 2nd is rather easy. You have an edge when you have an edge. Can someone explain to me how you know whether you have a good sense of humor? You won't be able to define it, but we all know if we have a good sense of humor or not. You have an edge when you know you have an edge, it's as simple as that. If you question whether or not you have an edge, then chances are that you do not.
1) How do you define "an edge". When using a system that is repeatable, when you conduct 100 trades and you end up with a profit, you have an edge. The bigger or smaller the profit, the bigger or smaller the edge. Keep in mind that the edge does not apply to any market at any time, but only exists in the type of market that the 100 trades were conducted in, i.e. bullish/bearish/churning. It is possible that your edge is just randomness, i.e. similar to a coin flip. But a reasonable trader should be able to tell the difference between a repeatable system that produces an edge and random trading success similar to a coin flip. 2) How do you identify an edge (how do you create an edge for yourself to trade with) Data mining. Trial and error. Generating ideas and proving or disproving their veracity. Using the simple "scientific method" from elementary school. 2) How do you know you have an edge? Same answer as question one.
I have thought about this for a couple weeks. As far as #1, it is rather funny, the best methods I have developed through the years have come to me through error and in last 3 years for day trading. Cause of brain surgeries and memory breakdown, entries had to be reduced, stops/targets expanded. I originally was trying to make an indicator to show speed of Price slowing down, the harder I tried at working the kinks out, the worst the results became, after over 70 attempts of errors, this was really what I wanted only inverse. Edge = Immense Time + Tested Results + Ability to Take Signals I believe #2 is based on 3 years of Time and very few losing weeks then days. There are basically two methods of entry: breakouts or retracements, pick one and then build rules around it.
"The Edge An edge gives you an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another and there are countless edges used in trading. There is no right or wrong edge, but what is certain is that before any trader can expect to be consistently profitable, they must have an edge that they can clearly describe, and become a master at applying that edge in the market. A trader who cannot define their edge might as well head down to the casino with friends for some fun. Many traders who aspire to become consistently profitable tend to hop from one trading method to another. They strive to âpredict market behaviourâ and fail to accept that traders do not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. They cannot clearly define their edge. Traders need an edge that suits their own trading personality, then to become âa master of that edgeâ. As with anything in life, most people are successful because they become specialists. Likewise, the best traders become specialists at profiting from the market with an edge they have mastered."