One person (who I will not name) in a very popular trading book says that the best way to identify a ES trend for the day is if on a 5 minute bar the ES volume is over 10,000 contracts for most of the 6 x 5 minute bars from 9:30AM-10:00AM EST...this does not seem correct as I've viewed it...what are some of the more popular 'to the point' ways to identify an ES trend for the day...?
Useless info like most found on most books. As far as the comment of price direction, this "direction" may change many times during the day faking you out time after time. Trending days are the exception not the rule. Susana
If there was a "popular," "to the point" way to identify trend, we would all be rich. What the market really loves to do "is not trend". I think the billionare traders, Jim Rogers and Paul Tudor Jones said it best: "Maybe the trend is your friend for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most part it is rarely a way to get rich" - Jim Rogers. "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." - Paul Tudor Jones.
Someone once posted on this board that the ES trends about 15% of the time and, while I've never actually studied it to determine my own numbers, I whole heartedly agree. One of the biggest mistakes traders make is looking for a trend. Think about this for a minute.....if you follow a trend you are a follower, right? Are leaders more successful or are followers? It's a no brainer, leaders are always more successful and that is especially true in trading. By the time your recognize the trend it is probably over -- there are exceptions of course. Being a follower in trading will lead you down the wrong path. You need to be ahead of the curve, not behind it. Following trends is simply following the curve - i.e. being behind it.
Most of the stuff in Mastering the market by John Carter is some of the most useful garbage around. Perhaps that's why Tradestation gave me the book for free when I opened an account. Maybe they thought I would increase my volume of trading if I used his methods. Everything in the book looks like it makes a lot of sense and he uses tons of example, but when you look at the market, you see that most of it doesn't hold water. Like his pivot point stuff for example, we've all seen times where the market goes to the tick to the pivot point, however, there usefulness needs to be integrated within a larger framework. Regarding the volume issue on the ES, perhaps the book is a bit dated as the average volume on 5 min chart for the ES for sometime now between 9:30-10am is usually at least 30,000. So what's this 10,000 stuff. Doesn't he know the volume on the ES has been increasing. He's more of a sales person for his seminars than a trader. Come on, buy with Tradestation indicator the squeeze for hundreds of dollars when the code is out there for free. Come on. Most ideas in his book don't work. I'd look elsewhere.
I think he charges $1495 for the indicator package. And it's free, lol. It's not the indicator that makes you the money, it's the trader. So many traders search for their edge thru following trends or finding "that" indicator. I see it over and over and over again. Your edge comes from within everyone. It's the guy who looks back at you in the mirror each day. That's your edge. When I tell people I try to buy exact bottoms they tell me I'm nuts. LOL. Yeah, I would be nuts if I didn't know how to do it. It's not the method that makes you a winner, it's the trader in you. You just gotta find that guy.