Ideas For Now-

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. VOL 820K! We are getting close... Van put down the Utz!
     
    #1021     Sep 1, 2020
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Well, its definitely an election play. And now with all the social unrest, I'm sure they'll beat on the top and bottom lines as the last 3 months have more than likely bode well for gun sales. They certainly did in Q2.

    Thing is Stoney, there's a lot of competition in this business. Plenty of private manufacturers. If you look back, it sells off after every election. It did however keep climbing in 2012 after Obama got reelected. It leveled off and then ran like a banshee as Hillary gained popularity, then it crashed from $22 to $6 by early 2018 on Trumps win.

    It may keep going, but its really a stupid long term investment if you think about it. If Trump wins, it dives again. If Biden wins and more 2nd amendment restrictions are put in place, yeah they'll see another bump, but then sales will fall as more prohibitive policies come into effect. The other thing you have to ask, is there a point when everyone who is going to buy a gun, bought a gun?

    It trades at 17X FCF.
    If it gets too much higher, it goes on the short list.
    I bet it sells off on earnings as they won't provide guidance.
     
    #1022     Sep 1, 2020
  3. They keep bringing it to $9.44 #WRTC
    904,000 shares officially running hot.
     
    #1023     Sep 1, 2020
  4. I'm still lurking Mr Market maker...

    Van is that a positive vol stick late?
     
    #1024     Sep 1, 2020
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Go to cash Stoney.

    EDIT.... shorted apple at 132 and change.
     
    #1025     Sep 2, 2020
  6. YES Van and by the way Ka.....Kaw! In at No 3 again...
    I did not get the company I wanted but the market doesn't care.

    1D chg
    CORTCorcept Therapeutics, Inc.37.36%
    VRAVera Bradley, Inc.28.37%
    FEACFlying Eagle Acquisition Corp.<------ stoney does it again was supposed to be ' Sportrac ' but we'll take it.
     
    #1026     Sep 2, 2020
  7. Remember David's Tea went under. I posted about that. Well pretty darn quickly they are coming out of bankruptcy! It's such a joke way back in the day I had a big position in loral Aerospace they went bankrupt they went to zero and then suddenly reappeared on the stock market at like $90! It's such a rip to creditors but never the less little Davids Tea of Canada is a Van sort of play....

    DAVIDsTEA: See The Big Picture And Buy This Quality Tea With Both Hands
    Sep. 2, 2020 9
    About: DAVIDsTEA Inc. (DTEA)





    DTEA at US$1 per share.

    Upon completion of the restructuring, DTEA will have a leaner business model with lower expenses and higher margins.

    Although the company has significant growth potential both for the e-commerce and the wholesale channels, this growth potential has passed unnoticed so far.

    Based on a takeover scenario, DTEA could be sold US$3.2 per share (minimum) under normal circumstances.

    DTEA at US$1 per share is our cup of tea. We love unearthing small caps with debt-free balance sheets and tremendous upside potential and we have discovered a bunch of them for our subscribers since December 2015, when we launched our research.

    These small caps with debt-free balance sheets offer unbelievable returns when investors discover them, so we bought DTEA and we will explain why in the next paragraphs.

    [​IMG]All dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

    The New DTEA And Its Strong Brand
    According to the latest news, DTEA terminated the vast majority of its leases and will keep only 18 stores in Canada under new, more favourable lease terms and conditions. The 18 stores to be reopened are all located in major shopping malls and cover six Canadian Provinces (Québec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick). Less stores and being online and on grocery shelves will make the business leaner with lower expenses and higher margins, which paves the way to profitability. This is not rocket science.

    [​IMG]On that front, it be noted that DTEA has a strong brand and loyal customers with many of them being millennials. In other words, it has a moat, which has largely passed unnoticed so far. Specifically:

    1) In September 2019, DTEA was named #1 Canadian Specialty Store in Leger Marketing's #COOL study, asking both Millennials and Gen Z what companies they love and appreciate most. As linked above, the 2019 Youth Study was conducted online by Leger from August 13 to September 1, 2019, among 3,003 Canadians aged 13 to 37, randomly recruited from Leger Opinion's online panel.

    2) In November 2019, DTEA scored 94.4 in Leger Marketing’s WOW Awards, ranking 2nd in overall Customer Experience for Ontario.

    3) In November 2019, DTEA was recognized by Newsweek as one of the Best Online Shops in the Food category. As part of the determination process, over 8000 American online shoppers were asked to assess DTEA and other online retailers.

    The New DTEA And Our Revenue And Adj. EBITDA Projections
    According to the latest quarterly report, DTEA has no debt and $39.3 million in cash on May 2, 2020. Furthermore, the company has stated twice that it will not issue any new shares or create any new classes of stock in its restructuring under the CCAA and that the restructuring will not have an impact on its share structure, as shown here and here.

    1) Revenue from e-commerce and wholesale channels: In Q1 FY 2020 that ended May 2, 2020, sales from the e-commerce and wholesale channels increased $9.3 million or 120.7% to $17 million, which is the result of the closure of the stores along with naturally occurring organic growth in these channels.

    Also, DTEA announced that for the 17-week period from February 2, 2020 until May 30, 2020, sales amounted to $41.2 million. But sales in Q1 FY 2020 were $32.2 million, so it's easy to calculate that sales in May 2020 were $9 million. And these monthly sales were only from the e-commerce and wholesale channels. Therefore, if we extrapolate this figure, we estimate that sales in Q2 FY 2020 when all the stores were closed, were about $27 million only from the e-commerce and wholesale channels.

    Back in FY 2019, sales in Q3 FY 2019 were flat sequentially compared with Q2 FY 2020 when all the stores were open. However, we will be conservative and will project that revenue in Q3 FY 2020 will drop about 20% sequentially, so they will be about $23 million only from the e-commerce and wholesale channels.

    And now let's go into Q4 FY 2020, which is the strongest quarter primarily thanks to seasonality. The sequential revenue growth from Q3 FY 2019 to Q4 FY 2019 was about 80%, which included the revenue from all the brick-and-mortar stores too. However, we will be conservative again and we will project that the sequential revenue growth this fiscal year from the e-commerce and wholesale channels will be about 50%. As a result, we project that revenue in Q4 FY 2020 will be about $33 million only from the e-commerce and wholesale channels.

    To sum it up, we conservatively project that revenue in FY 2020 will be about $100 million ($17 million + $27 million + $23 million + $33 million) only from the e-commerce and wholesale channels.
    2) New wholesale deals: In July 2019, DTEA announced that it expanded the availability of its tea sachets by signing additional distribution agreements with new major Canadian grocery chains and bringing the total number of retail locations with DTEA's tea products to over 2,500 across Canada since the fall of 2019. These retail locations include Loblaw's (OTCPK:LBLCF) grocery stores. It must also be noted that we will see the full benefit of this significant deal in Q3 and Q4 FY 2020, because the implementation of this deal began in mid-Q4 FY 2019.

    However, DTEA had 42 stores in the U.S. until early 2020, so the Americans are very familiar with the brand and its products. Given that the company decided to close all of its stores in the U.S., we forecast that it will try to make deals with some American grocery and pharmacy chains to grow its wholesale business in the U.S.....

    SO IT'S ONLINE ONLY TEA BUT THESE GUYS COULD BE THE GO - TO PLACE FOR THAT. I CAN'T THINK OF A TEA SITE I WOULD IMMEDIATELY GO TO... VAN? SOME TEA?
     
    #1027     Sep 2, 2020
  8. OF COURSE! HARNEY TEA-! I'VE BEEN ORDERING FROM THEM ALL SUMMER!

    Private co boss tea... Peach in the bottle is best.
     
    #1028     Sep 2, 2020
  9. Wonder how that option trader made out-

    Amarin selloff a buying opportunity ahead of possible sale, says Cowen 13:19 AMRN Cowen analyst Ken Cacciatore would be adding to Amarin positions on today's weakness and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares with a $10 price target. The stock in afternoon trading is down 29%, or $2.10, to $5.16 after the judges were revealed in the Vascepa patent appeal case. A reversal of the lower court Vascepa patent ruling is "highly unlikely and should only viewed as optionality," Cacciatore tells investors in a research note. Rather, Amarin's valuation should be predicated on its European opportunity alone, says the analyst. Cacciatore believes an appeals loss in the U.S. would better position management to either launch Vascepa in Europe or sell the company. An eventual sale of Amarin "remains on the table" and the company could be worth north of $10 per share in a deal, says Cacciatore.
     
    #1029     Sep 2, 2020
  10. I JUST ADDED DOMO TO THE IDEAS FOR NOW PORTFOLIO $44

    *** UPDATE! VAN I hate to add pressure to you or myself but get on board! I could only afford 250 shares.

    Was $46 earlier in day
     
    #1030     Sep 2, 2020