Ideas For Now-

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. Ladies and gentlemen I have a few ideas and many questions. Hopefully we can hash this out together.

    During this big crash I have only bought three stocks: Sanofy, La Jola Pharm & Atlas Air World Wide.

    The argument for all 3:

    LJPC-- La Jolla has a drug that is used for Septic Shock. This is one of the many possible outcomes of having Covid. It's not near as sexy as an anti viral or a cure.. but they have been granted emergency use all over the world and I am of the mind that whenever earnings come they are going to be very improved. There is a delicate line herewith the Covid stocks-- even if you come up with an answer there will be such pressure not to price gouge. So taking on a symptom... like septic shock and coming through the back door with a La Jolla is a nice way of getting in on the action without a spotlight on your companies morals. I bought at just over $6 this stock has not gone anywhere... currently $6.88.

    2 months ago LJPC reported earnings... Next one should be very much higher... The drug in question is called GIAPREZA.

    SNY-- I believe in the pharma space you can find safe income. This may be one of the very few areas of the market that will not cut their dividends. I do not like the president but I have been on the side of SNY's Hydroxychloroquine.

    SNY div = 3.5%. Sanofy is also going to be a vaccine player in all of this, they have European exposure and sales in dollars should translate well as the dollar is strong. I did not purchase this much lower $43-$44 range. SNY is now $ 51.

    Atlas Air-- I did some good research and found insider buying and I added that to the concept that they are still flying because it's cargo and in fact they are carrying a lot of Amazon merch. Ontop of that the price of fuel has cratered. It's rare you can find an investment that clicks on all levels like that especially in a pandemic. I bought at $23 and the stk is now $29.

    Granted I could of bought a whole slew of Zoom like tech plays that I had on my watch list and made a lot more but I was and still am scared. I'm the tip toe kid here...

    So what now? Well I Am Looking At Biocryst. BCRX. For today.

    Updates shortly.... ~stoney


     
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  2. Nobert

    Nobert

    SNY & AAWW , entry points at 10% lower, would have been perfect.
    BCRX , might end up at that sup of $1, but even then, with lots of hype from media, could go up 3x , 5x , 10x after that ; even then, by breaking down trend, shorts could get squeezed up to $20 or more. Balance is crap tho.
    LJPC is tragedy based on balance, death zone for noobs, probably will fly up with medias hype as well.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. Nobert I have no idea what you just said! I believe there is an app for that!

    One thing I like to do is see if any stocks that I have always wanted to be in but never could pay up for are on sale or at least looking good in an overall down stock environment. Two names come to mind for me. POOL & GNRC.

    Pool is just what it sounds a company that tends to the pool market which you would think would be in good shape as people stay home if they are lucky enough to have a pool. Over the years POOL has been an incredibly strong stock. My worry is the the large pools, the city based pools they service that will be closed.

    GNRC is portable generators. Usually after a hurricane I realize what a good idea they are and by then it's way up. Most companies you read about are pulling guidance due to Covid that's a real cop out and drives me a bit crazy. Investors will only stand for that so long. (1qtr) So I was impressed when Generac recently boned up and provided guidance...

    Generac sees FY20 net sales growth of 6%-8%, consensus $2.35B 02/13 GNRC The company is initiating guidance for 2020 with net sales expected to increase between 6 to 8% as compared to the prior year on an as-reported basis, and 5 to 7% on a core basis. This guidance assumes a level of power outages in line with the longer-term baseline average, but includes the benefit of one significant power shut-off event in California. Should there be a major event, such as a landed hurricane, along with additional public safety power shut-offs in California, we could expect approximately 3 to 5% of incremental revenue growth on top of the baseline guidance, resulting in an upside case as-reported sales growth of 9 to 13%. Net income margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, is expected to be approximately 11% for the full-year 2020, with corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be approximately 20.0%. Should there be a more active outage environment during 2020, we would expect margins to increase by approximately 50 basis points above this baseline guidance, resulting in an upside case adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20.5%. Operating and free cash flow generation is expected to be strong, with the conversion of adjusted net income to free cash flow expected to be approximately 90%.

    Should there be more active outages... margins increase 50 basis points! Hello that has my attention because when the power does go out it is much tougher for the crews to respond in a pandemic.

    first stock on Watch List is : GNRC @ $ 99.00-!


    BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)

    I'm still flushing out this story.. there is a mixed shelf offering I think the stock will actually go up after that... even if it initially goes down -- timing here is tough. They are in a small study that's never good in Brazil no less but there is a PArt 2 of that study we are going to most likely want to be a part of. The NIHD is funding which could be interpreted as a good sign...

    The trick here is separating BCRX from GILD. BCRX is also working on an anti viral for Covid but it is a pill whereas GILD is a injection. Dosing here is important... The GILD drug apears to need too high a dose and they are side effects so what will the dose be for BCRX's drug? I don't know! That's what comes out in Part one of this trial.

    The company has opened up the enrollment for its randomized double-blind pbo-controlled clinical trial evaluating its galidesivir drug in patients with COVID-19. Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the trial will be performed in two separate parts and conducted under an amendment to the existing clinical trial for yellow fever in Brazil to enable the study to start sooner.

    The first part is designed to optimize the dosing regimen for galidesivir, while the second will hopefully validate its activity against pbo. Based on the safety, viral load reduction in respiratory tract secretions, improvement in COVID-19 signs and symptoms and clinical manifestations as well as mortality results from Part 1, BCRX will be able to select the ideal dosing regimen for Part 2. Then in Part 2, the treatment’s efficacy will be determined by time to clinical improvement, time to hospital discharge, time to undetectable viral levels (as measured by PCR in respiratory specimens) and all-cause mortality.

    That's along way of saying-- I am watching the stock very carefully.
    2nd stock on Watch list Biocryst...BCRX @ $ 3.66
     
  4. Nobert

    Nobert

    Lol. No worries, sometimes i just might sound like a crack head.

    That's an impressive amount of info you got on that bio play. Personally - i try to skip them , since there's none in BRK's holdings list.

    Just giving a look to balance sheets and major levels of TA.

    Anything else - simply not qualified enough to speak about.

    Hope it goes well for you tho :fistbump::thumbsup:
     
  5. All Good-- I am an idea guy... they used to have a word for me... they would hold me in a cage-- I forget that word-- ' shouter ' Something like that you shout the idea and then someone else sells it. Then I said you now what I need a bath now and then and I want one in my office. It helps me come up with these ideas. I misinterpreted an eye roll and installed it myself on a weekend- then that Monday I was fired. That was back in the internet days!

    I have a little buy plan developing here-- it's very hard to have a feel now...
    A) This week buy GNRC they have earnings on April 30. We already know we can count on these earnings because the company has been very upfront. Generators will not go out of style here as the world ends. If anything they will go up in sales. Off the grid types. I am hiding in Ct right now in the hills, I should be in NYC but I am too sacred.

    B) This one is a bit more out there- With oil this low why would you be into a energy natural type company renewable... Hydro.. Solar! It sounds crazy right? The trouble is I've been following Brookfield Renewable--for a good while now circling like a vulture. They can continue to pay their dividend I believe and I think that the few companies that can come out at the earnings call and actually say yes we can cover that dividend would and should be rewards. These Yield ideas are tough to find! Nearly every high yield play I dig through i find warts.

    BEP Div 4.9 % Stk-> $46.00 -Price Target $52-$61
    "defensive attributes and strong balance sheet,"

    ~stoney
     
    Nobert likes this.
  6. In On GNRC. I know it's not sexy but I developed this little earnings plan for you all--not up much at the open about $1.50.... Remember Earnings April 30---

    I hope to add a few more names at least for the watch list. This is a delicate time and I believe stocks will be heading back down shortly. Certainly the GDP number I think will be a catalyst for reassessment.

    You would think funding into the military is fairly constant here.-- So I am watching very carefully and placing on the Watch List Now Aerojet Rocketdyne.. The reason I like hypersonic weapons! And with Trumps friend in Korea not feeling so good all frozen... it may be a good time to think about their newest weapons which are hypersonic. What is that-? Think a missal flying very low so fast no one could ever intercept it.. Yikes Japan cannot be happy.

    The stock has a sleepy look to it that I think could break to the upside.. Can't think of a catalyst at the moment and that bothers me...

    WATCH LIST:

    AJRD

    WPC

    IRM

    CASY

    BCRX
     
  7. <<Ideas For Now Summer Trading Portfolio "

    SNY: 51.00

    GNRC: 100.00

    AAWW: 29.00

    LJPC: 6.80
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  8. never2old

    never2old

    could be mistaken for something else - isn't that an SOL acronym?

    I like your style, something in this thread for everyone, carry on with the tips.

    replace with BPY

    on a pharma, replace BCRX with MYOK with added CC DITM options
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2020
  9. Never2old thank you for your contribution. I shall look at your ' replacements ' today. I'm especially interested in your replacing of BEP with BPY which shows you know the Brookfield story is quite a bit larger than just the alt energy! I have to say I am pretty critical when it comes to various managements in these companies and over the years I have read a lot of reports from both BEP & BPY and just always came away very impressed with the management.
    The trouble maybe there are so many " B " somethings...

    The chart on BPY is good. Double bottom at @ $7.25 area ... at $9.50 now heading up....Fell off a cliff from $17.50... realy nothing inbetween so best to go off the 1/2 rule-- 17/50-7.50 that's $10... so add $5.00 to $7.50 and we get = $12.50 Stoned target.<--- Good return and lets check the dividend... because I do like a dividend.. Woa! This must be a misprint. 14%!!!! What.

    WPC--W.P. Carey (WPC)

    Has always been my favorite weird REIT. I must admit my mother back in the day was very much friends with a relative of the Carey family, so she always owned the stock and we always talked about it -- so in one way or another i have been following this name for over 20 years. My dear Mom has passed on but I still check on the stock frequently. They pay 6-7 % in bad times and 4% in good times... so we are firmly in the bad times where the % is up as is the risk. WP has a bunch of really good tenants who have locked in escalations on their rent. How many of these are going to say we cannot pay rent now... It's impossible to tell... there's one big car releasing company in England I'm worried about.

    WPC owns 1,214 properties in the United States and Europe, with roughly 60% located in the US with the other 40% across the pond. The portfolio is 98.8% leased at a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.7 years. With net debt to EBITDA at 5.4x, the company is well-capitalized to take out more low-cost debt (weighted average interest rate of 3.2%) to make more acquisitions down the road.

    WPC has an extremely diversified portfolio encompassing retail, industrial, warehouse, office, and some hotel tenants across two continents. And its dividend has grown for 23 years straight. Insiders bought a significant amount of common stock recently.

    All of that sounds good. WPC reports this Friday. So I will be attempting to gleam any guarantee of dividend safety and if that guarantee is given since I trust management here I will buy.

    Pretty much the same plan as I have with Brookfield... BEP.... Let me take a look at MYOK. ~si
     
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  10. MyoKardia Inc. (MYOK)This biotech name specializes in developing cutting-edge therapies for orphan cardiovascular diseases like hypertrophic obstructive and non-obstructive cardiomyopathy as well as dilated cardiomyopathy.

    During the second quarter of 2020, the company is expected to release data from the Phase 3 EXPLORER trial, which is evaluating its mavacamten therapy in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM).

    Why are these bio trials often called Explorer?

    HCM awareness campaign, which began in November, also stands to benefit MYOK by increasing awareness of the disease<-- Well that didn't happen...

    BMO Capital’s George Farmer seems excited about MYOK’s prospects. “We believe the primary endpoint will be met in EXPLORER.While Farmer added that the impact of mavacamten on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) has been a cause for concern, he argues that the trial’s design to include careful dose-titration could reduce some of the risk.<---

    To this end, the five-star analyst reiterating his Outperform rating. Along with the call, the assigned $90 price target!!

    >>>>>>

    Its funny I had this theory that Bios would be slowed down because of the virus and all the FDA action On Covid. My brother in law is a broker and he keeps telling me it's the opposite they are opening the door and trying to push a lot of stuff through...

    Cantor Fitzgerald seems 'positive' as well//03/31 MYOK Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Alethia Young reiterated an Overweight rating and $95 price target on MyoKardia shares after the company presented full Phase 2 MAVERICK data for mavacamten in non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy...

    Well the story is confusing but the price targets are high! --> Adding MYOK to the watch list... cash burn is a concern as is the study to be released won't I don't think get to the crux of the question: patient population size and opportunity. Management seems to want to spread this drug out among larger sub groups.
     
    #10     Apr 29, 2020