Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by JFirst20, Feb 6, 2021.
Is there a way to analyze financial markets with Ichimoku with certainty?
"Let go of certainty. The opposite isn't uncertainty. It's openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose up sides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow."
It means, there is no way to predict the market with certainty?
But there are those who make a lot of money, how do they analyze the market?
Purely simple technical?
Trading is not at all about certainty. Trading is about recognizing that:
ExpectedProfit = WinRate * SizeOfWin - (1 - WinRate) * SizeOfLoss
(WinRate is a probability between 0 and 1. SizeOfWin and SizeOfLoss are in dollars.)
Trading is about entering a trade if ExpectedProfit > 0, subject to risk restrictions that keep you in business when you have bad luck.
If you can't understand the equation above, I recommend refreshing (very basic) probability math from school.
The only certainty in the market is uncertainty.
Surely the opposite of certainty is literally uncertainty? In the same way bullshit is the opposite of truth!
I went to Las Vegas a long time ago and counted cards for 30 min till I made $ 400. I then left before the casino could track me.
At another casino I pulled out $ 1,000 at a normal table, and started counting again, and someone came by told me to come to a table by myself and the dealer and I soon left.
Counting cards ONLY gives you a 55% win rate max. You also have to have a big enough bank roll to be able to withstand variance. My best system generates a 65% win rate trading over time. It was also for over a year the best system out of 9,000 tracked systems.
There is nothing on earth that will give you a 100% win rate. If you want certainty don't trade.
When you say your system gives you a 65% win rate, I assume your risk-reward ration is 1:1?
Is your system based on common indicators?
Or is it price action?
ichimoku kinko hyo
How do you know that @oraclewizard77 is using Ichimoku?
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