Ichimoku & certainty

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by JFirst20, Feb 6, 2021.

  1. JFirst20

    JFirst20

    Is there a way to analyze financial markets with Ichimoku with certainty?
     
    .sigma likes this.
  2. iprph90

    iprph90

    "Let go of certainty. The opposite isn't uncertainty. It's openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose up sides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow."
    Tony Schwartz
     
    .sigma and Sprout like this.
  3. JFirst20

    JFirst20

    It means, there is no way to predict the market with certainty?
    But there are those who make a lot of money, how do they analyze the market?
    Purely simple technical?
     
  4. Trading is not at all about certainty. Trading is about recognizing that:

    ExpectedProfit = WinRate * SizeOfWin - (1 - WinRate) * SizeOfLoss

    (WinRate is a probability between 0 and 1. SizeOfWin and SizeOfLoss are in dollars.)

    Trading is about entering a trade if ExpectedProfit > 0, subject to risk restrictions that keep you in business when you have bad luck.

    If you can't understand the equation above, I recommend refreshing (very basic) probability math from school.
     
    yogi_trader and taowave like this.
  5. The only certainty in the market is uncertainty.
     
    comagnum, persistence and cesfx like this.
  6. henry76

    henry76

    Surely the opposite of certainty is literally uncertainty? In the same way bullshit is the opposite of truth!
     
  7. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    I went to Las Vegas a long time ago and counted cards for 30 min till I made $ 400. I then left before the casino could track me.

    At another casino I pulled out $ 1,000 at a normal table, and started counting again, and someone came by told me to come to a table by myself and the dealer and I soon left.

    Counting cards ONLY gives you a 55% win rate max. You also have to have a big enough bank roll to be able to withstand variance. My best system generates a 65% win rate trading over time. It was also for over a year the best system out of 9,000 tracked systems.

    There is nothing on earth that will give you a 100% win rate. If you want certainty don't trade.
     
    yc47ib, cesfx and henry76 like this.
  8. When you say your system gives you a 65% win rate, I assume your risk-reward ration is 1:1?

    Is your system based on common indicators?
    Or is it price action?
     
  9. JFirst20

    JFirst20

    ichimoku kinko hyo
     
  10. How do you know that @oraclewizard77 is using Ichimoku?
     
    #10     Feb 7, 2021