remember - if we want juice then be willing to increase your loss parameters -- we pay more -- i.e. perhaps an ITM trade today on VLO would be more proitable "right now" - but if I were too early would maybe have to exit with zilch to show for risk. I tend to do ITM more than OTM- but often you can get more bang for buck doing size on OTMs if you can nail it -- IF I buy OTM calls (puts) then I 1. increase size and 2. shorten my prospective time frame and 3. decrease margin (i.e. profit target) all with a decent R/R along the journey
will likely begin to leg into Dec 110c at 102.40-102.50 on VLO if reached today - so far 102 acting as resistance - approx 50% retracement
looking good Billy Ray- feeling good, Louis -- would like a nice bullish hammer- but dont think it's in the cards. OR is it? 5 day ema at approx 104 is my price high this week
MNX/NDX keeping NDX/MNX on radar screen - open gap from 11/2/05 unresolved - perhaps it's stays that way -- perhaps :eek: But I'm thinking about entering ITM - NDX or MNX puts - will check my with my crystal ball advisor- almost 82.3467% certain I will take this trade - and 78.23156 certain it will be successful (just put that in for all the quants) - only question unresolved is --- from what NDX level we enter
sold Dec 110c @ 3.-3.20 yesterday as per my plan (couldn't get 3.50 so I did modify my entry slightly) today closed for 1.55 will look to re-sell the same strike or 'possibly' the Dec 105c my long Dec 115c are now bid .50 below my entry price. since this was designed as a "backspread' (ratio spread) and therefor I did an unequal number of (short) Dec 110c - the positions is slightly net down with 5 weeks to go until Dec 115c expire. Lots of "options" left by which to manage this trade and convert into a nice profit by then -- in hindsight long puts was the better play - which goes to show that being correct on direction - particularly not missing large moves like occurred in VLO - is mandatory whether trading underlying or in the options ! essentially I was suckered on this one when it filled a gap and moved higher intra-day yesterday-- only to sell off later -- that was a precursor to it trading down to its 100 day ema today. In reviewing the character of the open interest (OI) on this equity it is (now) more clear there was a clear risk of significantly lower prices as has occurred. IF I did not have an open position in VLO I would be looking for a long trade- those not yet in should consider that it could easily trade above 100 next week with acute expiry pressure kicking in. Check out volume on front month calls - i.e. the Nov 100c and consider that many times large moves in one direction-- like has now occurred-- at this juncture in an option cycle (i.e. November) -- can easily be matched by a slingshot in the other direction into the final Friday. Just 2c to ponder.
Cool... good management in the face of adversity. You must think VLO has short termed bottomed today to exit the short call so quickly. Looking forward to seeing how you adjust the position going forward.
good point ssternlight - astute observation ! exited at it's 100 day ema - not that this has to be some magical level-- but it is a sensible point to lift the short side IMHO. Also I can always re-enter and the bid is still at my exit level. With so much time left it is almost certain (to me) that I will have a decent opportunity to re-sell same calls. further by lifting them now it gives me more flexibilty and frees up margin to look at other possible secenarios, rather than nursing the short 110c for a few cents more.
long MNX XL (mini-NDX Dec 160p) @ 1.25- may add if price dips under 1.00 I am amazed that the NDX has not pulled backed much from today's highs - can't figure those computers out nowadays- the reason for the trade is an unresolved gap from 11/3/2005 and the significant move up over the past week or so without any significant PB. My only concern in entering OTM puts is that this gap occurred at the 200 day ema and as such it may not be resolved for a lengthy period whereby my puts would become toast. will monitor to determine if selling upper strike is the move