+ 5 COP @ 1.85 -10 COP @ 1.23 order buying 5 COP Feb 60c @1.55 looking to exit COP Jan 57.50 on next pop- if any- there is an unresolved gap on COP that has me concerned so I want to close Jan ITM and maybe buy Feb -- while keeping short Jan 60c--- will consider reversing and selling Jan 57.50c.
damn missed PD Jan 45c @ 7.50 -- got cute seeking 7.90 -- when I think the 145c is a lock for expiring worthless -- anyway it would have enabled me to sell more Jan 40p or even move into Jan 45p on the sell off. In 2006 --- gotta work on my premium selling- I tend to seek the perfect price in my mind-- maybe it's a certain number I see as being more "safe" or less risk than say an entry .40 cents lower/higher. Besides we all know by now that the EXIT is what defines most great/good traders, i.e. what we do AFTER we are in the trade/position that is the hallmark of excellence which we all seek in trading- and in most endeavors in our life... such as in relationships, etc. So if I enter HUM Feb 55p @ 2.5 rather than 2.25 or 2.10 and the stock trades to 49-50-- which IS THE PREMISE for even entering HUM at this price level (i.e. gap) --- will those few pennies make any difference -- or if it trades to 60 and I fail to manage the positions will those few dollars make a dent in overall pnl? Doubtful. So I missed selling (3) PD Jan 145c @ HOD ---- EVEN THOUGH my premise for even trading in PD at this juncture --- is that it will get "clobbered" in 2006. SO --- why hold out for a few pennies higher i.e. 7.90 on three (3) lot of Jan 145c when I could have gotten a sweet enough price on the opening pop? AND I am already short (2) Jan 140p @ 3- seeking to sell more on PB. I think for me I need to start trading more off of underlying price and S/R -- and the like- and 'less' on premium and math relationships in constructing options strategies. Too much perfectionism which over the LT will result in giving up much more than you ever gain from those times you are "perfect". There really isn't a perfect price anywhere to be found anyway- is there??!!! Other than in hindsight. ICe
Fortuna... (and all others) what do you think of this: +NTES Mar06 60c - NTES Jan 60c <2 I am going to enter NTES March60c - then will look for NTES to be marked higher in 2006 as right now there may be some downside pressure in next few days from tax selling -- then we look to sell Jan 160c IF and when it is marked higher - as is my strong expectation --- begining 1/2/2006. We might also consider buying some March 55p right now and then legging into Jan or Feb 55p on any large PB. we know NTES gapped down on earnings- and will likely languish in a trading range for some time- albeit the potential to close said gap is high - and although it may move >4-5 pints in Jan 2006-- I think any large "break out" will occur after January expiry - although we can't actually time the markets so to speak--BUT with options pinning and Jan open interest already on the "books" on NTES- the chance of it trading much above 60 or below 55 by 1/20/06 is slim. I also look for it to outperform the broader markets. This is the premise for trading NTES in the aforesaid manner.
HUM selling HUM Jan 55p @ 1.60 already +5 Hum Feb6 50 p @ .90 then will look to get "cute" and leg into Feb 55p if we get a bounce back to >55 on HUM as I "expect". Obviously my order buying HUM Feb 55p @ 2.10 isn't lookng to get filled. Yesterday I could have bought Feb 55p @ 2.35 - but noooooo - let's hold out for a TEN cent pip.... as I had my order @ 2.25!
sold (2) HUM Jan 55p @ 1.60 +5 HUM Feb 50p @ .90 - 2 HUM Jan 55p @ 1.60 gtc order to sell 4 Jan 55c on HUM @ > 1.7
sold (2) Jan 55c @ 1.50 - 2 Hum 55p -2 Hum 55c 3.10 bought (2) Feb05 55p @ 2.40 will now sell 3 more Jan 55p on PB - and (2) 55c on any decent mark-up next week.
It seems like only yesterday we were concerned about Y2k and had so-called pundits predicting a catastrophe with the world's computers going into a new millennium. I recall like it was yesterday the day madmen ran planes into the WTC. I recall Spring of 2000 out in AZ at the EL Tovar Hotel with a friend watching on her laptop as the tech market began to crash. I got hammered that Spring (and it made me more gun shy ever since); but I had a great view of the Grand Canyon, and food was great. Here it is 6 years later. We are still surviving- and in fact the USA and world economies apparently are doing AOK. Even Chicago and Boston have World Series championships. Thus I believe next year will be a positive one- and great trading opportunities will be prevalent. Of course this year did not start that way. In fact we all recall threads on ET.com proclaiming "Is trading Dead" (to paraphrase) and others bemoaning the end of viable trading markets. Perhaps many of us were spoiled by the markets of the 80s and 90s. Anyway -- like many traders-- I like aphorisms... so here are some to ponder over the long Holiday weekend -- and as we move into a new trading year ----- 2006. There are many others of course, so if anyone wishes to post some that have particular appeal to them - please do so. What is more mortifying than to feel you've missed the plum for want of courage to shake the tree? Confidence comes from not always being right-- but from not fearing to be wrong. To be absolutely certain about something, one must know everything or nothing about it Making Mistakes is part of Business [Michael Marcus - another top trader] taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgement, being wrong, making your next best judgement, being wrong, making your third best judgement, and then doubling your money... Bruce Kovner Trading Paradox I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market's behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It's what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can't use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn't work!... Mark Douglas Samurai Truth Every trader knows that market truth and practice are visceral, not cerebral. Market wisdom, like Samurai truth, is practical truth that can only be utilized and realized in action. It can never reside on the level of mere theory... Robert Koppel, Tao of Trading It Takes Courage To Be A Pig The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs...When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig... Stanley Druckenmiller Deal With Randomness As humans we do not come equipped to deal with the variety of randomness that is around us every day. Many professions deal with making processes and things work reliably. We are taught to strive for perfection, for high scores in school and in sports. This can be a handicap to traders. There is no perfection in trading. Instead traders must put probability in their favor... Larry Sanders Aim for Big Gains One common adage...that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits... William Eckhardt Emotional Discipline The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading... I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don't cut their losses short... Victor Sperandeo Learn to Take Losses The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand... Marty Schwartz Be Defensive Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have... If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them... Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in... Paul Tudor Jones
To think is easy, to act is hard... but harder still is to act in accordance with your thinking.......... !! ... Goethe