next stop for OIH - index 137 (just a guess) let's se if we can hit it tomorrow -- or even MOC I just knew i.e. (intuitively) the damn index would trade below 135. DAMN! So I rushed into the OIH calls and paid more than necessary. I seem to always be early on all my best trades over the past 10 years+. REALLY TOUGH to trade during expiration week --- with all it concomitant manipulation to pin levels. Of course we don't see any regulation of options manipulation during expiration week. NOPE! Of course not. The insitutional maggots don't want anyone stepping on THEIR toes, now do they?! :eek: But then -- let's pass a PDT rule for the honorable folks who maybe don't want to put 25,000 at risk in every account but are still good traders!
down BIG on OIL positions after coming out of the PDT lockdown! held QM overnight with PnL = -800 plan: average QM and exit at small profit or scratch
to scratch or not to scratch --- THAT is the Q. Oil index up in pre-market trading. My premise is that OIH gets pinned to 135 +/- a few ticks. But yesterday's action took a lot of wind out of long oil. So I need to adjust my thinking so as not to get creamed IF oil sells off again from this opening bounce. No easy answers in some trades, and if I can't get a gut/intuitive feel about what is right-- then I know I should not be in a trade. That's my style. But to paraphrase manager Tom Hanks in "Major League": It's supposed to be HARD, if it wasn't hard then everyone could do it!" We can't be right 100% so I might have to accept that I am too early and thus wrong on this oil trade at this time. This is where patience will come in to sit tight and see if my "plan" for OIH to trade back to 140 ----- is doable! Can't wait for this long weekend even though it is supposed to be real cold in Chicago. Gotta light the fireplace, and study for my series 7.
Begs the question -- why aren't you trading into this alleged manipulation? You consider arbitrage unwinding to be manipulation? Or is it that you honestly believe these firms are short the combos and pushing stock to these strikes? Do you think it wise to take this kind of risk on oil in an IRA? What's your stop on QM?
"alleged"?? I'm happy for unwinding. anytime you want to bet $100 per (on certain) underlyings I will tell you where the PIN will be at expiry. Better yet you give me 3/1 odds since you are the one saying "alleged"! D'Accord? sold March QM 5820 PnL -530 bought QM april @ 5980 PnL + 100 no stop yet- a good trader can trade in any account and make money. My goal is for this small IRA to be at 75000 by year end. To do so I must push it a little and trade futures and vola stocks.
scratched 7 OIH March 130c PnL -40 orders placed to buy 7 OIH March 130c @ 790 since OIH will likely be PINNED to 135 +/- . Can't re-buy the calls today or that would be a CUSIP day trade unless I but another strike. (although 137 is not out of question as I opined yesterday) added +3 GOOG March 400c @ 2.60 + 8 GOOG Mach 400c @ 248 I expect to see GOOG near 360 next week. Bank on it!
MNX/NDX will not be pinned to 16750. it will settle at some totally arbitrary level NOT ! Hmmmm.... then I wonder why my 6750 straddle made money ? Must be plain olde luck. AAPL will not be pinned at 70. It is totally random that AAPL just happens to be at 7003 right now. Totally. I said on the other Journal that I figured AAPl woudl trade back to >70. Why? Lucky guess! No actually it was open interest considerations and experience. Like anything else some just can't play golf, and always miss the green. Thus I sold front 70p after having already closed front 70c