this sucks! had to go out for an hour so I closed 10 Ebay 3750c $.60 cents to soon!! But hey what's another $600 in 45 minutes?! :eek: :eek: AND I didn't roll int oApril waiting for a PB. That infamous PB that never comes! a lot of good it does to be a great chart reader and directional trader if you're not going to couple that with patience. Funny thing is - I placed orders on the next 5 lot at 3.60 then changed it b4 I left and then sold them a 3.25 gonna analyze this faux pas later this evening in the Journal --- as I had said in earlier comments that I expected EBAY to pop today so it makes no sense to exit ALL the ITM calls before the peak was reached. finally getting rid of this damn cold/flu thing so manybe I can concentrate better next week. EBAY + 8 Ebay April 37.50 Puts @.65
AMD placed order earlier buying 10 March 42.50p @1.45 when offer was 1.90 (now bid @ 2.40) since I figured the puts would go to 2.55. Obviously my gut was right that AMD would be moved back to 40, and in hindsight I should have bought at market. But with only 10 I didn't think the r/r was worth the shot in entering at 1.90. The ironic part is that when I "miss" these trades it still acts to boost my confidence a LOT as I know all year there will be better trades with higher probability/reward and I will be making them with much larger size long as my gut stays strong. This is going to be a good year! so daily (realized) PnL is only appprox 1400 today - should have been 500-650 higher had I been more patient on EBAY
you gotta question the beautiful mind of the person making this comments who then proceeds out of impatience to exit the march ITM calls almost 650 too soon in the a.m. trading hours, and with 2 weeks until expiry. Pass the meds! I did it because of a sub-conscious bias that EBAY could be pinned nearer to 40 than 4250. So - that doesn't mean it won't first trade to 41.21! :eek: Oh yeah- it did already! Or what IF I am wrong and it gets pinned to >4250? Then I have given up almost 2000 on selling the 3750c at this date for 3.25! Bias kills maximizing profits! Gotta get rid of my arbitrage-pin-bias-headache. A little bit is good and consideration of open interest is something I will always do- and it is an edge IMHO- but I have to be more--- flexible--- this year with respect to expiry pinning.
Hey ICE, good way to close the week. Did you think about your words from our conversation this past w/end? I know you mentioned you had to step away, but had you not would your outlined options (below) have allowed you to bank some that money left on the table? "need to remember: 1. scaling in/out 2. can immediately get back in (or look for PB to re-enter) and/or we can get into the underlying and/or we can roll into a different strike or month." PS - I am still trying to live down my PAYX exit.....$$$ left on the table as of right now $465 and to think my target was the 42-43 area??? what an ass clown i am!!!
GOOG + 2 March 390c @6.60 (near LOD) once again patience pays off in waiting until GOOG traded back into gap. Patience is so important in trading once you have mastered the fundamentals. It then becomes almost all mental no different than in sports. order buying 2 March 390c @ 5.60
next time ask yourself what the reason is you left too soon. IF it was a valid reason - (in your opinion - like going to a meeting etc.) then just go on to the next one. But IF not then figure out how to avoid it. Today I left 650 on table with EBAY - but that was not the faux pas. It was not rolling into another strike and/or the underlying as per the post you reference. Even if we did 1/2 -1/3 the size initially at least we are represented in the trade. But with that said I like to be careful not to mechanically do that - only when I have some gut that down the road the underlying will likely visit higher prices - and I will not get a PB. Also I just had a strong gut that EBAY could close nearer to 40 than 41, today. If you knew how much I left on the table this week in OIH trades- you wouldn't believe it. Its' near $4500. I was in the 130c @7.30 and the OIH March 135c @5.30 and took random exits for profits of about 1080. That gives real meaning to "going broke taking profits!" since you need those 3000-4000 dollar weekly day trades to make up for fking up on CME puts ocne in a while! AND I am talking on no bigger than a 5 lot. Now that takes skill to make 400 on a 5 lot. So why do I keep ringing the register too soon myself? Impatience?
bjdhawk look at my earlier post on AMD - today! I looked and saw the 4250 puts at 1.90 ask. I was all ready to click off a TEN lot since I got a very strong VIBE that AMD was heading to 40. Somehow I just "knew it" and you know what triggered it - something I read earlier on briefing .com AND my reading of the chart- triggered that gut feeling? In fact my gut said it was heading back to 36 sooner or later. But I did not act. Look at current bid - 320. One part of my methodology as a discretionary trader is to know when my gut feel is accurate (i.e. psychic/intuitive) and when it it mere thinking. But I didn't honor the gut on AMD. Had I entered and held I would now be up 1300 Think about that with respect to yourself on the next trade.
one more thing you know what it was on the chart that triggered that gut on AMD??? It was that AMD had traded back to the TL from 12/8/05 - 1/18/06-2/14/06 and I always look for these kinds of levels and re-tests and "patterns". TLs are a large part of my method. But not everyone can read them correctly and only look for the 'obvious' when it is the 'subtle' that makes the difference in trading off charts and patterns, i.e. things like symmetry that most don't even know how to look for in a chart pattern (fortunately). (Baron - get a better spell check - sil vous plait )