The Diamond princess cruise does not have a missing number, they caught ever single case. 712 total cases, 12 dead. 1.7% death rate on the ship with almost absolute certainty.
it's such a stupid argument....if we have x population with infection, and 50% remain asymptomatic through their recovery, how many people do you now have w/anibodies?
You're seriously quoting a mid-winter cruise ship population as a sound sample for nation? Again, you DO contribute so much to ET trading threads, but biostatistical/actuarial nuance.... just *ain't* your thing.
Look i never said that sample applies to the whole population, it only applies to the demographic of the cruise ship. Every country has its own demographic of old, sick and fat people. Death rate on Diamond princess: 1.7% with almost absolute certainty, nobody missed. Death rate in that town in Italy where 80% of the population was tested, higher than average older demographic : 2.5% Death rate in Germany with massive ongoing testing and younger demographic: 1.5% Death rate in South Korea with massive ongoing testing: 1.8% There are not massive numbers of hidden cases that are being missed in any of the above samples. When someone in South Korea gets it they contact trace everyone that person has been in contact with and test them all as well. There are not many cases that get missed with this approach. But if you want to be conservative you could divide those numbers in half, because you think they are missing 50% of the total cases: For Italy: 1.25% For the German demographic : 0.75% For South Korea: 0.9% Those are the kind of rates that Fauci and Academics reckon are the real death rates for CV: About 10 times that of regular Flu. Spanish Flu in 1918 had a death rate of around 2.5%
Agreed! Most asymptomatic when tested will go on to develop mild symptoms and some will die according to the same probabilities that effect everyone else without antibodies. It's a myth that there are large numbers of infected with no symptoms even after the incubation period, but the symptoms can be very mild. The test we have been using tests for active viral infection it will not reliably find those who were infected and now have antibodies. If we test for antibodies in those with no symptoms we will be finding those that had the virus, most likely had mild symptoms even if they say they had none, and now have resistance due to antibodies. The ones that say they had no symptoms are not lying, but who remembers the sniffles for a few days and a brief scratchy throat, or a low grade fever a month ago, that at the time they mistook for allergy or a simple cold.? The antibodies in most infected people, i would guess, will develop in response to the protein (antigen) tipped spikes on the intact virus particles. These "spikes" must be what binds to a receptor on target cells. I heard some guy say that chloroquine, the much mentioned malaria drug, may bind to the same receptor site that CoVid-19 binds. Maybe? Who knows? but if that's its mechanism as a CoVid drug, than its only going to be effective in the early stages of infection because that binding would be competitve with CoVid-19. I wouldn't think it would be very helpful in the U.S. where, by and large, we only test sick people, if that, and of course presidents and their son-in-laws. Chloroquin is being tested in a double blind study at the Univ. of Minnesota I believe. So it could be useful, perhaps , but perhaps, depending on mechanism, more likely in Germany, where the test people without symptoms, than in the U.S. By the way Chloroquine is structurally related to Quinine. I think I'll up my intake of Gin and Tonics.
Well, there's two things....it shows the value of the Iceland study which tested a large group of individuals regardless of symptoms and & preponderance of positives w/o symptoms. Meaning, we can make an estimation based on contact tracing of how many cases may be out there & how many cases may have recovered. Also, to clarify, my understanding of asymptomatic was as yours....that the symptoms would be mild and recovery would be no big deal....but from reading the news report it appears asymptomatic are people walking around w/zero symptoms, no fever, no cough, no sniffles, nothing.
I accept Germany's rate as accurate for their demographic and accept that it includes to a sufficient approximation all the "asymptomatic" at the time of testing that in other populations would not be detected, because a significant number of these infected people in other populations will go on to have very mild symptoms that would be dismissed and not counted if they were not been tested. Consequently, and because of Germany's very active and responsive mitigation, I regard the German statistic as a reliable, low bound, death rate for a demographic that mimics the German demographic. It is almost certain the actual death rate for the U.S. will be higher! But we may never have a reliable value for it. Does that matter. I think not as much as other things. What matters is there are a lot of people very ill, a lot dying, a lot of families losing their loved ones, a lot losing their friends, our hospitals are overrun, and our economy is shut down. This is what matters, and it is not good. We need more competent leadership at the Federal Level, and a change in attitude at the top of our government.
I think sooner rather than later the US is going to be forced end the lock downs to save what is left of the economy, perhaps social unrest will force it. During this current lock down at some point we are going to hit some sort of peak daily death rate, maybe 3000 deaths a day, Maybe 5000. I dont have a feeling for what it will be. Then the death rate will fall. And people and media will have to got used to so many deaths happening every day, Trump will be able to end the lock downs. The media and others can longer scream shut it all down. Trump can say we did that and still 5000 people a day were dying. But then i read it will be up to local politicians to end the lockdowns in each State. So who knows when the lockdowns will end.