anyone been trading this stock? (who hasn't) I was on the short side from 145-165... Now I'm getting long. Its fascinating because it almost seems as if share price is being run down to make its offer on BOT noncompetitive against CME. A 122.80 trade in after hours friday really is a far comedown from the 160s blow off top we had a few weeks back. Wondering if perhaps Sprecher's bid on CBOT is maybe a tell on limited growth prospects for ICE past this acquisition ??? potentially driving things down ? The question remains: are the exchanges a done sector? no longer hot?
I'd keep an eye on ISE - the only one yet to be 'in play'. AX (ARCA) was taken over, CME and ICE making eyes at BOT. NYSE and Nasdaq go public. The Montreal Option Exchange in Canada will IPO soon too. And so on.
I'm all over the place on this deal. I don't usually follow the futures markets, but I've found a few concise analyses of this fiasco that seem to illuminate the key issues involved. Rumble Over the CBOT What a Week at FIA! At the end of the day, though, you just have to hope that ICE manages to snag the CBOT away from the CME leviathan. It would be one hell of a coup!
Why doesn't the CME make a bid for ICE? That way, everyone comes out ahead. As things stand now, the CME loses. Either they have to pay up to keep the CBOT, or they lose what everyone seems to think would be a valuable addition. The bid has put pressure on ICE stock, but I think if they can close it, they will soar. They will be in a position to challenge even the CME as the leading derivatives exchange. They will control the current hot markets, energy and ags, plus the bonds, while the CME is left with the stock indexes, which are not what they used to be, currencies, which are losing out to the retail FX craze and some odds and ends. Plus, you have to think the private equity guys are looking at this space as well.
regardless, i can't imagine ICE staying at these depressed prices for long. If the CBOT bid somehow works out, ICE flies. And if it fails, ICE flies ...
Montreal lists tomorrow. MXX.to I was looking at ICE this afternoon as a possible long, would rather wait for a nice base to form. But, who knows it sure can move when it wants too. AAA30
The proof is in the chart. The 20 day just crossed the 50 which is a "death cross". I would have to guess that it could either turn around right now or it will head lower from here to 106 or 91. The selloff these last few weeks appears to be at higher volumes then average suggesting that this is a legitimate move and telling me that it will probably go lower from here. The next few days will be pivotal. If it doesnt respect 120 then 106 here we come. Maybe even 91. THe good part is that 91 is probably the lowest it will go. The buy signal will be when the 20 crosses the 50.
i'm sorry but do some fundamental analysis. The unexpected success (and blow off top that resulted) from the nybot acquisition seriously changed their rev/earnings picture, and elevated this thing to a new level. A suggestion of back to 90/106 is as goofy as saying apple goes back to 60 or google back to 350 at current earnings story.
Well, lets take a look at both Google and Apple to see how the same logic holds up. Here is the first chart.