ICE is Hot!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by U Boat Commander, Nov 12, 2007.

  1. I've been tracking the daily volumes on ICE and also keeping an eye on CME and NYMEX volumes. One thing for sure is that this market volatility is driving huge volumes on each exchange. October was a record voume month for ICE (26% above October 2006) and I half expected that volumes would drop off or be flat this month when the month began. But so far November is turning out to be way better than October, with averge daily volume tracking 10% better than October and 41% better than November 2006. In short, ICE's volumes are increasing at an increasing rate. And it's not just ICE Futures Europe where ICE has its energy trading. ICE Futures US (soft commodity) volume is growing even slightly more robustly than energy volume. With revenue per contract, volume, OTC fees and market data fees all increasing and given ICE's opreating leverage, I'm starting to think that ICE is going to report huge earnings for Q4, far in excess of analyst expectations. I'm still working on my model, but so far Q4 EPS of $1.10 per share seems well within the realm and that would top the highest analyst estimate by 9%.

    The recent market sell off has knocked ICE back about 8% from its recent high and I'm considering an entry based on the fundamentals outlined above. Technically, ICE does not look great, having just broken a recent trendline and momentum indiators pointing down. I gues that's to be expected on a thin stock like ICE under these market conditions. On the other hand, ICE could be forming a cup and handle pattern here.

    Would love to hear some other views on ICE.