I wrote an algorithm that will give you a stock that will make .5% the next day...BUT

Discussion in 'Trading' started by selrod0324, Oct 22, 2010.

  1. lindq

    lindq

    Well, again, not to burst your bubble, but you aren't talking even in your dreams about a .5% daily return. Your very preliminary testing showed the possibility of that return on stocks traded. Which is far from a daily return.

    In reality - if you should make it to reality - there will be many days with no trades. Possibly even weeks. And that's something that no backtesting or even forward testing can predict, because in this regard the overall market is your master.

    If, for example, overall volatilty in the market dies, then you are dead in the water. So at some point in your testing you are also going to want to involve some market metrics in the mix.
     
    #41     Oct 22, 2010
  2. Of course, I was referring to him thinking a 0.5% daily return would be a bad thing....its completely unrealistic of course.

    Yes agreed.
     
    #42     Oct 22, 2010
  3. You confuse stock volatility with trading gains.

    A 5-day ATR will predict with high probability whether a certain move can take place next day.

    The thing is you are too naive, too new in this business, too silly, too arrogant to learn and too insulting to have any future in anything. Your attitude is a loser's attitude.
     
    #43     Oct 22, 2010

  4. no, a %0.5 is anything but impressive.


    collective2.com


    go learn something at collective.
     
    #44     Oct 22, 2010
  5. First off...way too many decimal points in there. We really dont need to see to nearest billionth of a percent. Anyway...just by crunching those numbers on my 10-key and assuming that every stock was exactly the same price and assuming you pay zero in commission, I estimate that for every $100 you make you lose $137 with that spreadsheet data you posted (and thats not including the 5 big losses that you couldnt fit into the screenshot) So really thats about a 37% loss over those trades.

    Thats of course if my finger didnt slip up when keying in that information on my 10-key. You will get an exact result if you type into column C61 and D61 the code "=sum(C1:C60)" in the C column and "=sum(D1:D60)" in the D column. Then in E61 type "=sum(C61-D:61)" If the number is positive, you made money. If its negative (which i think it is) you lost money.
     
    #45     Oct 22, 2010
  6. Bob111

    Bob111

    are talking about 0.5% per trade or 0.5% per day on whole account?

    which stocks you are talking about? how liquid they are? how many trades per day? i wouldn't place all of my money in one trade. it's suicidal in terms of money management. you short->stock halted->next trade 50-150% up, cause somebody bought the whole company..
    if i was you-i would run a backtest based on stock777 numbers. they seems more reasonable\realistic\practical. or just replace them with variables to find optimal numbers.
     
    #46     Oct 22, 2010
  7. The problem is that somehow it has got misinterpreted that I said this WOULD work. I have put numerous constraints which I have said are yet to be tested and optimized before it could even be truly tested for feasibility.

    Also for who asked, I am talking about 0.5% gain per day
     
    #47     Oct 22, 2010
  8. Bob111

    Bob111

    i'm still confused..0.5% per day on whole account? how many trades per day? how liquid those stocks,you are planning to trade? given current "liquidity" driven by crazy algos in many cases even $10K order can move the price far more than 0.5%. not in your favor off course.
     
    #48     Oct 22, 2010
  9. This algorithm is designed for are for high volume stocks and very 'wet' stocks where selling $50,000 worth would not even be noticed
     
    #49     Oct 22, 2010
  10. Tradestation.com ??
     
    #50     Oct 23, 2010