I would like to modestly suggest that we go higher next week

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Asparagus, Jan 12, 2008.

  1. 1. i think sentiment is overly bearish
    2. imagine how many people are short this market

    3. the price collapse that everyone is looking for has not materialized. on wed, thursday and friday every time prices look like they are going to collapse they run back the other way...there are buyers under the market.

    any thoughts?
  2. fseitun


    I agree.

    Although US indexes are off to the worst year start in I don't know how many freaking years, as a daytrader I can see lots of buyers whenever the markets attempt to collapse.

    I expect some range-bound market for next week - consolidation phase - and then a major up-trend day.

    It is reasonable to say that if the indexes can survive next week without falling down further - especially the Nasdaq - then a market rally is a concrete possibility.
  3. Er, that'd be 3 years. How long you been around?

    Markets looking pretty weak here. Rebound on the way, but how low will it go first?
  4. Pekelo


    It is like 70+ years, according to the media. I think they said 1932...

    So far we went down 90 ES points in 6 days at its lowest and in 2005 it was only 40 points.
  5. OK, how long have I been around? How old am I? How young are you?

    Please excuse my Saturday morning delerium.
  6. The technicals are supporting a consolidation phase or even an upcoming rally. However, if a rally, no matter how strong it is, it will probably be short lived.

  7. 1) 1836-1837 massive real estate speculation and invasion of Mexicans clashing with ‘Minutemen’ at the
    Alamo. The bubble bursts in 1837 and leads to a 5-year collapse of the stock market and economy. People have
    no money to spend.

    2) 1907- after the 1900 collapse and bottom in ’02 and ‘03, stocks have rallied back for 4-5
    years and everyone is fully invested as rates rise causing a money panic (i.e. derivative blowup). The stock
    market panic of 1907 brings the New York Stock Exchange to the verge of bankruptcy. No one has any money
    to stop it- they are all tapped out and fully invested.

    3) 1937- the 4-5 year advance from the ’32 and ’33 lows
    culminates with everyone invested at the 50% retracement level of the ’29-’30 crash. This combines with the
    100 year cycle from 1837 and the 30-year cycle from 1907 to cause a 5-year bear market of liquidation as no
    one has any money left.

    4) 1977- The Jimmy Carter Democrats come to town and inflation explodes, rates rise
    dramatically. This is the birth of oil and gold speculation bubbles. The market tops January 3rd and drifts lower
    all year and starts a 5-6 year bear market until 1982. People have no money to live and women are forced into
    working for the first time in US history.

    5) 1987 -Wall Street invents the forerunner to ETF’s- the basket
    program with S&P futures. Portfolio Insurance run by quants ‘guarantee’ that all will make money without risk.
    This creates a credit bubble which the FED must prick leading to the panic in October.

    6) 1997-98- Thailand implodes, then Russia, as all currencies lose confidence. Long Term Capital Nobel Prize winners almost wreck
    the world economies with their guaranteed investing strategies using derivatives that work perfectly on paper.

    7) 2007-2008 this time its different. The quants have figured it all out by now. Huge hedge fund blackbox trading
    systems take the important trading decisions away from frail humans and leverage their derivative 2nd, 3rd and
    4th mortgages, and options and ETF’s, to get more bang for the buck. Blackstone IPO's to gather cash while the average investor still has some. One giant fund loses $6 billion on a bad
    natural gas bet but the quants figure out a way to offset it and keep the game going. Goldman Sachs becomes
    the largest hedge fund in the world. JP Morgan won’t be far behind as it leverages its modest capital with over a
    $trillion in derivatives ( extra credit for history buffs- wasn’t it J.P. Morgan who bailed out the market in 1907?
    Is this a repeat or an inversion coming?).
  8. I'm just looking for that spike, where there's complete capitulation before it all reverses. Like a -400 to -500 move in the DJIA. That doesn't mean we can't get an upwards move without it, but that wouldn't be a very healthy bottom imho and would just postpone the tankage until later.
  9. have you considered that the capitulation happened in august and that we've just been trading in a sideways range ever since?

    one thing i've been thinking about is that the long term top that everyone is looking at is actually a bottom (or consolidation, call it what you will)...but that is just the contrarian in me.

    i am not particularly bullish or bearish on the market as a whole. i see some great emerging themes that i am buying on this weakness...c'est tout!
  10. Just typical repeated human behavior of globalist minded entities causing wealth transfers..from weaker hands to their own through "created" crisis. As long as humans are around in the current state of our "nature", this process will never end. :)

    Oil prices are very high right now for a reason..

    The U.S. dollar is very weak right now for a reason..

    The U.S. economy is on the slide right now for a reason..

    The stock market recently has dropped substantially for a reason..

    The U.S. as a nation is going broke FAST for a reason..

    The list could go on and on..

    None of the above events are random at all..these were all planned and now in execution phase. These are all typical actions within the context of another cyclical "wealth transfer"..from weaker hands to the powerful.
    #10     Jan 12, 2008