So when they don't work-- have you come to any reasonable conclusion or common denominator in a high % of cases that pinpoints to a high degree why they didn't work? For instance-- I will map out a supply zone on XYZ stock... it is a very strong level.... price has never revisited the level before. Price spent little time at the level. This level resulted in a subsequent momentum drop-- big extended range candles. The distance before it found demand and reversed was also significantly larger relative to previous pullbacks/reversals. This in itself tells me this is a high probability area to look for a short the next time price retests the zone. HOWEVER-- the first time it goes back it blasts right through it and fails. Was this just random? On occasion yes... but in an extremely high number of cases, I can assure you it was not. There are specific conditions that exist when levels get breached... and specific conditions that exist when levels are honored... the majority of the time. If you deny it... so be it. It has taken me two long years to see the common denominators. These conditions now help me determine whether I initiate a counter or breakout trade... or whether I just pass and sit on my hands... they also give clues while in a trade whether one should hold or get out early prior to hitting a stop. I urge you to look deep into your levels/setups that didnt work as well as those that did... and try to uncover the whys behind it. It is indeed possible.
Congrats on the profit... that's why we do what we do! The key point here is-- you have summed up the essence of why averaging down is a poor substitute for identifying the proper levels... Dustin's trade is a perfect example.
Well-- speaking of pink elephants... did you know that... Just a little levity here for the proverbial ruffled feathers here...
you are a one trick pony beating a broken drum ,on averaging down, i urge you once again to stick to what you know,have been averaging for over 3 years with an 85% success rate
Congrats. Just think of the additional profit you would've made if you entered full position at the highest probability locations instead. The moral of the story? "Success" is relative.
I would say when they don't work is more psychological in that if I were to take a losing trade I may become angry, and want to make my money back so that I am trading emotionally instead of waiting for a confirmed setup. I looked back once on a losing day, and saw I kept trading in the incorrect direction, but when I looked at the chart with fresh eyes, I saw what I should have done. This is the main difference between Sim and real money, in that once you are trading with real money, you become more emotional. That is why I am currently trying to trade less, until I either get more confident or better. When I go for a scalp, my win% is much higher than being able to trade in the correct direction of the market for a longer term period. However, if I get to the point where I can predict a longer term trade correctly, and take that trade, I would make more profit. Also, on the hard right side of the screen, its harder to recognize the correct setup or wait for the correct setup. Or sometimes just forgetting the rules I setup right before getting into a trade, for example, not waiting for double confirmation or going against one of my indicators in an instrument that respects this indicator more than a market where pure PA works better.
Oracle-- do you have a formal written trade plan? Also-- have you read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas? That book literally changed my life. Fear of pulling the trigger was my biggest obstacle... the content was a big eye opener for me. Highly recommend it (keep in mind it presumes the reader has an edge... and that simply put-- FEAR is ultimately what prevents us from capitalizing on that edge).
this is ridiculous, please supply actual numbers , empirical data , this hypothetical non answer is bs,it's far easier for you to do it than for me to sign up to some service, then promote it on ET,sifting thru multiple vendors,decoding , please stick it in the reply box here