I Win 100% Of My Trades- Expectancy.

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by JamesEM, Oct 22, 2016.

  1. JamesEM

    JamesEM

    Well I completely disagree. Each to their own I guess!

    On re-reading my own comment, I've realized that there IS a technical error there...albeit one which is probably implicitly saying what experienced traders already know.

    " Following the plan "to the outcome of that opportunity" means staying in a trade that you may well know is about to lose and wanting to do so to maintain the integrity of your long-term edge. "

    That should read, "means staying in a trade which you are highly confident will lose"...nobody knows what's coming next. They only know what is probably coming next.

    The idea of "not... staying... to "fulfill" the plan" is so complex it'd need a whole new thread, so your answer is a bit lackadaisical and unappreciative of the complexity of such a statement (not to mention dangerous to newbie traders!). It's like looking into a mirror with another mirror behind you- where does it begin/end?!

    If I exit because I "know" that it's the right thing to do, then I am part of the plan and therefore haven't "screwed" it...you should absolutely stay to the outcome of that opportunity using whatever framework you use to judge and measure probabilities.

    Not sure why you've back-tracked on your original (insightful) comment?

    PS I genuinely LOVE taking losses within my plan when I'm process oriented and looking for the outcome over the long-term. It's the only way I've found to get to new equity highs.

    PPS It's like your first comment was written by another trader! LOL.
     
    #51     Nov 6, 2016
    SunTrader likes this.
  2. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    So I'll sum up your re-think like this...

    If you use stops, and you have a stop on, the stop is the ONLY means of exiting that trade.

    If that methodology works for you, so be it. Like you said, to each their own. There is no love or hate.

    Trade On!
     
    #52     Nov 6, 2016
    JamesEM likes this.
  3. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    There are 2 RULES, not to be confused with guidelines, that I go into each trading day with.

    1) NEVER allow a decent profit (you must define "decent" for yourself) to turn into a loss.
    2) Do whatever is necessary to ensure life to trade another day.

    In my world, there is no conflict with those rules and executing within the guidelines of a plan.
     
    #53     Nov 6, 2016
    JamesEM and Xela like this.