I Win 100% Of My Trades- Expectancy.

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by JamesEM, Oct 22, 2016.

  1. JamesEM

    JamesEM

    Yes, it's true. 100%.

    It's not difficult to do and it doesn't require a super-skewed R:R (no 1 tick winners with huge stops!).

    What I'm talking about is +ve Expectancy.

    If amateurs make money on any one trade, they get excited, elated and pumped up. If they lose, they may question what they did wrong, get depressed and downtrodden.

    Professional traders think differently. They learned that as long as they stick to the proven plan, EVERY trade they take has a +ve E and, therefore, is a winner...even if the single event loses.

    Good days and bad days are now no longer synonymous with winning days and losing days. They wake up one day and chuckle to themselves when they realise that they were more upset about that day when they made $200 (whilst deviating from the plan) than the day where they hit their $300 daily stop (whilst taking every valid trade and managing them perfectly according to their plan).

    Outcomes are meaningless in the short-term. Following the proven plan 100% of the time means you are ALWAYS winning (even when you are losing).
     
  2. southall

    southall

    Perhaps you are one of the lucky humans that can take losses with ease.
    Sadly for everyone else, a long string of losses hurts alot, even when trading a positive expectancy system. You never know if your trading system still has a positive expectancy.
    Its not like a casino game where the house can prove it has positve expectancy. Trading is full of uncertainty. The markets are always changing. Systems that have always worked in the past can stop working for extended periods of time.
     
    tomas262, SunTrader, d08 and 2 others like this.

  3. It is good to be on a long winning streak: well done for recognising it, and maling the most of it.
     
  4. And most importantly: don't change what works!!!!
     
    JamesEM likes this.
  5. Handle123

    Handle123

    I don't think markets are always changing, you play the game long enough, you have seen some price structure before a few times. I never have liked taking losses period, I certainly don't take it personal as it is cost of the method I am trading, unless you take one trade a lifetime and you still in it at open profit, you can't be at 100% positive outcome. But you can be at 100% expectancy if you are trading the method as your Trading Plan was developed. If you are questioning your system to still have positive expectancy tells me you didn't back test enough. Longer I trade, you just come to a stage where you accept and I think when this stage has happened, I have realized that what the market allows me to make, I have accepted this. I believe in my heart, based on six years of trading method and eleven years of back testing it, method will always work. I even used data from mid 1980s on old S&P500 when it was $500 a point. The method I use to scalp the ES and others actually most of it been using to trade long term stocks and ETFs for years before but has some modifications as I am trying to go for larger profits in the weeklies. Each market has it's own personality so each trade differently, Coffee certainly trades differently than Apple.

    I have to disagree that "Trading is full of uncertainty.", by trading my system, I don't have uncertainty, outcome is uncertain though. I have known systems to have long periods of no signals cause of way it been designed or goes in deep drawdowns, change them so drawdowns are less. Systems were they are seeking greatest profits normally have greatest drawdowns as well, whereas you concentrate on risk management and not as much as making greatest wealth, will normally have an outcome of less drawdown.
     
    iamnewuser911, d08, Xela and 2 others like this.
  6. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    Ok.. so since every trade is a winner already, would you mind sharing with us how many of your trades result in money going into your account, and how many trades result in money leaving your account?
     
  7. +1
     
  8. JamesEM

    JamesEM

    I still go on somewhat of a journey...but what I'm saying is, the more you trade your method and see how luck, losing streaks, winning streaks and everything in between plays out, you just start to realise that it's pointless moving yourself (emotionally) with every outcome. Now it's just another trade.

    I agree with the casino part but disagree with the markets are always changing. If you learn to identify the true mechanisms of price (emotions rather than systems), the way things express themselves changes but the game remains the same. Then it's just a case of having something flexible enough to take that change into account.
     
  9. JamesEM

    JamesEM

    "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate of everyone drops to zero"- Tyler, Fight Club :D
     
  10. JamesEM

    JamesEM

    I love what you wrote about the "one trade a lifetime"- this is the thing that ruins most people I think, craving 0 and 1. Absolutes. Is a trader profitable if they've only taken one winning trade in their lifetime? What about 1000 trades over a 3 year period? What if someone made a million over 5 years and then lost it on the 6th year? We keep bouncing around with labels (most people would call the trader with a 5 year, million dollar track-record profitable on year 5!) but, ultimately, we have to wait until we are dead for certainty.

    And then it doesn't matter.
     
    #10     Oct 23, 2016
    Baron likes this.