Discussion in 'Journals' started by EighthWonder, Dec 29, 2017.
Why do you think your trades have positive expectation.
Aka.. an edge.
I love this post! Makes the case for defining ends and then working out the in-betweeners!
Your guess is right. English is not my native language. I typed too fast so even didnt know 'a lot' would made you confused. I am glad that you guys finally understood me...
My tiny account starts with about $1350. Its a long long way toward my final goal...I will keep on recording my trades here to encourage me not give up this way.
You are right. Any major commodity contract is much better than its minor/micro siblings. However if I bought one lot CL instead, that meant I all-in my asset into an uncertain risky situation. According my current bankroll I cant afford any the probability of bankrupcy. Thats why I decide QM.
My trading philosophy is that you cant measure a precise winning/losing probability/edge beforehand. The only thing you can do is TRY.
So how do I decide the direction to place my bet? Very simple, I only look at the currect trend of price movement. CL is now going UP on daily/hours basis. Thats enough for me. Then I can find an entry point with a reasonable stoploss to give it a try.
I hate to say it, but CL would be your better bet here. I have looked at the QM vs. CL charts in the past. QM is ugly. It is counterintuitive that they should be so, but...Ick.
Given your lack of money, trading oil with QM is still not a good idea. If you have 25k you will be better off with UWT and DWT.
You can buy small quantities and scale in. I learned this technique from The Arora Report. This has helped me keep my risk lower when I a am concerned about risk.
When set up is really good I go to Cl
Way to encourage him paper trader YouTube watching loogie!
Do you backtest your ideas/ methods?
Raise my STP from 59.825 to 60.175.
I might close this position today cuz I decided to use tighter stop tracing from now on.
Separate names with a comma.