forget real trading, i just want to understand this concept. let's take a truly random event, meaning the outcome of the last trial has no effect on the current trial. say there is a stock that is either up or down and the probability is always exactly 50/50. is there any difference between going long when there are 20 up days in a row (uptrend), 20 down days in a row (downtrend), or 20 days of alternating up and down (chop)? i would guess the answer is no. i know i've mentioned this post a few times, but i think it's a great question: as i said in my above quote, if you should not make a decision based on information like that, what's the point of using the slope of a moving average? or what's the point of looking for trending price? some people have said to have 2 systems, one for trending and one for nontrending. but what is the point of that if you have no idea when one is going to start or end? if looking at historical prices doesn't matter, why would you switch to a chop trading system when you see chop? it could just start trending after you switched. so then you switch to a trending method and chop could occur! i want to know if looking at previous price movement should influence your decision at all for how you would go about making a trade.