What makes you so sure that YOU will survive that? Have you (or close relatives) gone trough that type of situation?
Interesting parallel. You want the system to collapse NOW so that there is time and resources to rebuild... for the sake of your kids' futures. That's similar to wanting the hosers in this economic mess to TAKE THEIR MEDICINE.. and for us NOT to bail out and prop up everything and everybody at taxpayer expense. In doing so, we'll consume too many resources and have nothing or little left to build when the collapse inevitably comes. Seems it would be less painful overall and for a shorter period if we just "let capitalism be capitalism"... losers fail and go by the wayside. Winners pick up the pieces and grow their businesses. Politicians would never allow this... so we are in fact, stuck with the worst.
Any amount of sustained deflation might = economic doomsday. This is why the gov't is pulling out all the stops to create inflation. Believe it or not, there are millions of American businesses and households that have barely managed to survive the economic crisis so far without defaulting on anything. They want to maintain good credit so when things improve, they can take full advantage. If deflation causes those who are surviving, but on the edge, to start defaulting on their debts because of the increased relative servicing costs, then a chain reaction might happen to cause another depression. Not to say this will happen during the current recession, but the next recession, and yes people this is not the last recession the US will experience, will be harder to dig out from as so much was used to stop this one. IF we manage to avoid falling into a depression this time, it's very likely the next recession will lead to a depression.
Papa's a good guy. He's a spot/futures NATTY trader who shares his industry insights with others. From the posts I've read he's a friendly & helpful person, so let's keep that in mind. I understand his line of reasoning. My take is that rather than the system collapsing the debts will be largely "inflated away." Of course the big losers is everyone who's not invested in real assets, like gold & commodities (& maybe foreign fx). MONEY = DEBT This "web of debt" will likely continue with high levels of inflation in '10-'12. It's possible the system could collapse, however; just make sure you know how to trade ES when the time comes. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, papa.
You are either blind or dumb if you think the troubles in the credit markets are over, or if you believe that the government has done anything but delay the inevitable decline of the US economy.
I don't see deflation as the enemy. Not the enemy of the people, anyway. Deflation is merely a correction to inflation, and any deflation will end when prices reach "fair value". We people could benefit mightily by a deflation. The government, on the other hand, sees deflation as the worst of all possible outcomes FOR THEM.... throws a monkey wrench into their "planned confiscation of assets through inflation" and shines light upon their profligate deficit spending. It is actually INFLATION as the great evil... the destroyer of worlds.
It will happen anyway. All China has to do is keep diversifying out of the dollar and buying precious metals and other commodities. This last treasury auction went badly. I hope the next one is better, but I doubt it. the average American does not really understand that devaluation and even outright default is not out of the question. Milton is gone, I would at least like to hear what he would have to say. Volcker is not saying much. It seems he knows but isn't saying.
I saw and heard Milton say, "... The Federal Reserve should be abolished... and replaced with a computer which increases the money supply at about 2% per year... to keep up with the population increases..." If we did that, we'd never have inflation. We'd never have deflation. There would be no need for a "gold standard". But then again, the Powers couldn't SCREW WITH THE MONEY AND CONFISCATE OUR BUYING POWER RIGHT UNDER OUR VERY NOSES.
Scataphagos - I don't believe in deficit spending either. Federal gov't budgets should be balanced just like the states. I'm pointing out a possible scenario for economic collapse that the gov't seems to be working hard to avoid.