First of all, I respect old traders. The fact that they are old and still trading adds so much weight to whatever they share. "Picking tops" is assumed to be bad by most traders, yet I want to argue it may not be as bad as it seems. The thing is you have to have deep pockets if you want to try it. If you shorted at NAZ 2000 and survived NAZ 5000 and covered at NAZ 1500, you still made money. Timeframe is a factor to be considered too. Even if you follow the trend, you may not realize on a smaller time scale your are picking tops and bottoms for your entry and exit. Yes, I may seem to be picking tops on the weekly chart, but at the same time I may be trading the longer time scale where I believe the market is downtrending for the next two years or decades. This is only for argument's sake, not saying I really believe it is the case. Need to go to the meeting soon so cannot discuss further. There are some reasons that I wanted to do this experiment, and I will find out for myself whether they are the true motives that made me do this through discussion with others. Finally, my "edge" is an edge over those on this board who cannot affort to lose their capital. I never claimed it's an edge over the wall street boys. That edge I am still searching for.
I seriously suggest you stop trading until you realize the extreme fallacy of the above statement. From what it sounds like, you are willing to hold onto your current short until it either hits your target or you lose all of your money. Risking infinity to make 8 points. It might work this time, given that of course there is always a probability that markets retract, but if you continue doing this, a blowout is inevitable.
Please read early posts before making comments. I have a mental stop of around 20 points to make a soft target of around 5 points.
LOL. This would be an excellent thread for all new traders to read as to what NOT to do in trading. Wondering what the opposite of "Elite" Trader might be. Any suggestions? I'm not slamming you, random trader. But your system is fraught with everything that can go wrong.
Again, please read early posts before making comments. Are you saying this because you are in the conventional camp that target must be greater than stop? Well, then go read some good posts on page 2 or 3 on this thread and you should gain some perspective. If one appears to be making comments without reading from the beginning of the thread, then the only thing I can say is please start from the begining. To join a conversation midway may turn out that you don't know what you are talking about.
For those who think "stop > target" is taboo, read this thread. There is always more to learn than one has time for. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8734
This is the least of the problems. You have no defined profit objective. You have no defined timeframe. (Days or weeks, you say.) You have no standards defined for what you believe is forthcoming market weakness or strength. You have limited capital which you admit will likely blow out. In short, you have no system, or even the most basic conditions of entering a trade other than your gut and luck. And you have shared that neither of those have served you well in the past.
Well, I assume you have read all previous posts. However, maybe you missed a lot of things because you went over them quickly. 1. I have defined profit targets. (a soft 5 points) 2. I have defined timeframe (weekly for bias, daily for entry and exit) 3. I have standards to determine bias. (whether they are good I don't know. that's what I am trying to find out) 4. I have limited capital in this account. But if necessary, I'll continue the experiment in the other account, where capital is almost unlimited for one contract. 5. In summary, I have a system. But I left some room for my gut feelings. I do this because I know I cannot stick to a 100% mechanical system, not because I don't realize the benefits of such systems. 6. I shared what I did in the past to give the reasons for starting this experiment. If I am doing the same as before, it wouldn't be called an "experiment". The result is already known. Hope these clarify some misunderstandings.
Well, you only lost 10% of your account today, it could have been worse. Looks like we could see a pull-back tomorrow and maybe over the next few days. Good luck!