ES (1020.25-1029.75) no trade ZT (108'310-109'100) no trade YG (370.8-376.8) no trade QM (29.15-29.75) no trade
9/3/03 Day 12 ES SEP03 Bias: down Position: open from 1018 on 9/2/03 P/L: -27.25 (990-1008, 1018) Sell and hold P/L: -37.25 (990-1027.25) ZF DEC03 Bias: up Position: open from 109'040 on 9/2/03 P/L: -5/32 (109'260-109'060, 109'040-109'160, 109'040) Buy and hold P/L: -19/32 (109'260-109'070) YG DEC03 Bias: up Position: none P/L: 0 Buy and hold P/L: 0 QM SEP03 Bias: down Position: none P/L: 0 Sell and hold P/L: 0 No fear, no greed, lots of patience
Lost network access since last night. Just got it back but still shaky. GTC orders seem to be the way to go.
ES (1021.25-1029.5) no trade ZT (109'080-109'280) sell @ 109'160 YG (370.6-375.6) no trade QM (28.475-29.525) no trade
9/4/03 Day 13 ES SEP03 Bias: down Position: open from 1018 on 9/2/03 P/L: -28.25 (990-1008, 1018) Sell and hold P/L: -38.25 (990-1028.25) ZF DEC03 Bias: up Position: none P/L: +4/32 (109'260-109'060, 109'040-109'160, 109'040-109'160) Buy and hold P/L: +1.5/32 (109'260-109'275) YG DEC03 Bias: up Position: none P/L: 0 Buy and hold P/L: 0 QM SEP03 Bias: down Position: none P/L: 0 Sell and hold P/L: 0 No fear, no greed, lots of patience
Overnight ES SEP03 (1025.5-1029.75) ZF DEC03 (109'240-110'030) YG DEC03 (372.5-375.1) QM SEP03 () Waiting for employment number.
ES (1017.75-1029.75) no trade ZT (109'240-111'000) no trade YG (372.5-381.5) no trade QM (28.625-29.075) no trade
9/5/03 Day 14 ES SEP03 Bias: down Position: open from 1018 on 9/2/03 P/L: -22.5 (990-1008, 1018) Sell and hold P/L: -32.5 (990-1022.5) ZF DEC03 Bias: up Position: none P/L: +4/32 (109'260-109'060, 109'040-109'160, 109'040-109'160) Buy and hold P/L: +1 1/32 (109'260-110'270) YG DEC03 Bias: up Position: none P/L: 0 Buy and hold P/L: 0 QM SEP03 Bias: down Position: none P/L: 0 Sell and hold P/L: 0 No fear, no greed, lots of patience
A quick summary after 3 weeks: Something seems to be wrong. Basically, after I miss the entry, the market then runs away. YG: twice missed my entry point by a fraction of a point. If I got in both times, the profit will be +6, while the buy and hold profit is +8. QM: missed my entry point by 0.4. If I got in, the profit will be +0.5, while the sell and hold profit is +3. ZF: +4/32 vs. + 1 1/32. ES: if the market drops suddenly, the same problem may happen. So far, my bias has proven right for YG, QM, and ZF. Yet, very little money was made on these. I think I know what the problem is. The experiment on each contract will terminate when the bias on that contract is reversed, at which time the two approaches will be compared. I have a strong feeling that the buy/sell and hold method will win out, but I won't draw any conclusions until the time comes. There are still weeks or even months for things to possibly come around.