TGregg's call of 1010 is a good one. Much appreciated! My call on his call to be a good call is also a good one. I suck at timing, but my ability to recognize good calls seems to be pretty solid.
Is the market expecting bad Fed Survey number? Most of the time market turns out be right. There is only one explanation--data must have leaked. That's probably the norm rather than exception.
11 point range (998-1009) for the day An interesting day. For the first time since the start of the experiment, price reached the stop area. I will not be stopped on spikes or times of major economic data release. If price reaches the 1010 area again tomorrow, I will stop out and wait for reentry. I am amazed by the accurate calls by TGregg (1010) and bubba7 (1003). Someone follow their calls may be able to make some quick bucks.
8/21/03 Day 4 Bias: down Position: open from 990 on 8/15/03 P/L: -12 points Sell and hold P/L: -12 points No fear, no greed, lots of patience
Well, that depends on the timeframe. Short term, the market is always wrong. Long term, the market is always right, after we are all dead.
I can't speak for bubba7, but I think you assign too much to my call. I would not suppose myself to be able to pick long term tops and/or bottoms, only that I pointed out a location as a point of resistance. And not even resistance for certain, simply a point of likely resistance - such that placing one's stop precisely at that point of resistance is not as good as placing it slightly above. Do not read too much into what I write. I am not some mystical, mountain top guru who calls market tops and bottoms, although I think I would enjoy being just that. Instead, I am a mere student of the market, and frequently a poor one at that.
We are all students of the market. I have been in this game long enough to know not to look for gurus and trade exclusively on their advice. However, on various boards, I do see some people consistently make better calls than others. After some time, I want to take consideration of what these people say. My analogy is that these calls are like traffic lights. They don't tell you where to go, but when the lights turn red, you better stop. And when the lights turn green, you can proceed more confidently, knowing you are unlikely to end up in a wreck at the intersection.
4 point range (999-1003) overnight, no economic data release expecting another lifeless day, rather spend the day watching paint dry