Here is my chart in high resolution. Call me a douche and I will simply take these charts somewhere else and leave this site for you "expert" traders.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion and at least you've put some thought into your post and bothered to back it up with a chart. However, in my opinion - and that can change in a day just like the market can - I see no reason to be short here. If, for example, I see the VIX suddenly drop below 16 then I'd at least consider that a short term top is in but a major top - fwiw, I think not. JMO
Here is what I am looking at... The Greece situation in my opinion is not that big of a deal, but the market seems to effected by it any time there is news. So I use the National Bank of Greece as a proxy. It doesnt seem like the price of NBG was screaming higher last week. If the problems were solved, then this stock would quickly gain a dollar or so in short time like IRE. Just looking at the chart makes me suspect NBG will probably revisit the lows of last year within 2-3 months. IF the Greece problem was solved, wouldnt everyone be piling right now into NBG? AAPL seems at the top of its range. Do you buy more Apple when the IPAD comes up for sale? AAPL is a leading stock. What happens to Apple will happen to the market. The TLT looks like its in a bubble and about to have a sharp breakdown. This kind of looks like stocks like JSDA. The TLT (AND NBG) looks like its JSDA when it was at 5 dollars back in 2007 (now JSDA is at 60 cents). The $SPX in the two prior years had 10-15 weeks of upside before sharp correction downs so we are right now at our 10th week. It seems ripe right here. I think the $SPX will be at 1130 by end of April. The only thing you should be buying right now that has considerable upside...is Palladium miners like PAL and gold miners like NG. The price of Palladium looks like its going to bubble up the next few years just like the technology bubble. PAL is racing to re-start its Palladium mine which has been on care and maintenance. Paulson is piling into NG and owns millions of its shares. Gold is breaking upward yet again (PAL also produces Gold and other metals). On the news of the re-start of the Palladium mine at PAL I think we should have a good shoot up of 20-30% on that news alone. Pal will probably hit 12 bucks in the months to come and NG 22 dollars. Gold is much higher now and Palladium will eventually be much higher too then it was in 2008. Greece is not the real problem...its actually the entire world's debt and Greece is just a proxy for the larger problem. There is simply too much out there. All they have done is talk about it, but talking does not pay down your credit cards...talking just fills the air with sound. Debt does not disappear and the talking just created some time for you guys to step back and consider what to buy and sell. You guys should be greatful for the great talkers as they have given you some time to think. Bottomline, next 4-5 years you will have bubble-like pricing in gold, oil and interest rates will keep going up. You will have hyper inflation. I would not be in the $SPX or stocks like GE. Get in on the small cap miners and resource stocks. That is where you should be and where guys like Paulson are positioned... Another resource stock...HERO. You are looking at a double right there... BTW, there is one way that the local government here can get rid of all its debt and they call that Chapter 9. I dont know what they call it over in other countries...maybe "default" or just plain bankrupt...but thats the only way Greece can get rid of all its debt. The end of the debt problem and bottom of the bond market will be when a first world nation, probably Great Britain, does a Chapter 9. The signs are there right now and I think that will come in 2012.
yes, PLEASE fuxx off, you are an incredibly dumb guy. Your failed AAPL short calls are already legendary now you make yourself look even dumber by relentlessly calling broad market tops without the slightest substance behind it. For a market to mark a turning point it needs a huge catalyst and volume behind it, nothing of that is (yet) in sight. I am gonna go short AFTER this occurred and AFTER the indexes break major support on at least daily chart frequencies. You simply spill your saliva without any backup but hopes and wishful thinking. Can you possibly be right? Yes, absolutely, but it would be nothing but dumb luck. If you ever traded your own calls then you would have lost more in all your prior attempts than you could ever make back once markets really break. Smart traders look for confirmations instead of trying to be cowboys and heroes.
When I look outside, I see lots of windows and places where people live. I realize not everyone who lives in these places actually has work and someone else supports them. I realize that many have lost their jobs and just sitting at home rambling on and on all day/night on the internet trolling about. Look, I am sorry to hear about your situation and I wish I could assist you in some way of finding employment. However, I do not have the resources to help you. I can, however, offer my moral support and cheerlead you on if that will be any assistance in your search for a job. We all have educations here that cost someone or the government lots and lots of money. Lets utilize our educations, put our heads together and find a way to come out ahead instead of wasting human life trolling about the boards and utilizing some odd creative way to get around the profanity filters. I put forward a trading idea with charts. Now if someone else can chime in with an intellectual idea that will be just fine. For those of you at home and still out of work like asiaprop, you guys too can throw your two bits in as well. Dont be ashamed to do it.
a) "I chimed in" with lots of empirical evidence to refute your idea to short into a rising market. No confirmation of a reversal is anywhere in sight and you were countless times WRONG with your calls to short over the past couple weeks. b) I paid every single penny for my own education in your country, otherwise I dont have any business with or in your country nor do I owe anything to you or your government, nothing! Otherwise, please stay on topic or do you enjoy taking your own thread ad absurdum?
nothing is simple but probabilities are much more stacked into your favor when being aligned with the broad market rather than playing a guessing game when the market may turn over. Guess why most algos and hedge funds (those who do not have access to order flow) operate on the back of trends rather than reversals. People have put thought into this. (note: I am talking about those funds engaged in longer-term/multi-day positions). Coming out here every other day to claim the top is in, such as what retailDAYtrader does, looks stupid. An earlier poster made an excellent point: Wait for the markets to break, look for a failed bounce and then align yourself with the market. Easy? For those with discipline yes. I back tested uncountable ideas and approaches and feel confident in what I am talking about. I cant say I get the same impression about a guy who comes onto the stage each other day to play magician and getting a big baseball bat shafted up his axx each single time so far.
Hey, I have never tried to bypass the profanity filter like you just did a few posts ago. I will have you know there is no profanity filter here and you can say fuck just fine. I have no problem with the word as I have used it countless times. You must be mistaking this website for other ones you troll and visit. If you have some better ideas, then I am all ears as I actually have money on the line. I dont come to this website to troll, but figure out ways to make more of the green. You can go ahead and post your calls, but wait...let me guess why you have not. Maybe its your secret trading model that you do not want revealed to the world. You can save that bullshit because I have read that for the past some odd years on these websites. As for your tuition, I really could give a shit. I am not here to hear about your losses rather finding ways to gain.