I think someone found the holy grail

JackMorgan · Jun 19, 2022

Snuskpelle said:
Collective 2 is choke full of martingale systems. If they've survived for a while they have had at least one moment of 'impressive' leverage already.

There do exist serious systems on C2 but the "make me rich by next year" ones are nearly all martingales or have some other catch. Typically you can put together a sim portfolio of the hottest systems as advertised by C2 stats and see it spectacularly fail out of sample.
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Is there anyone there by the name of Martin Gale ? If not , there should be

wmwmw · Jun 19, 2022

SoyUnPerdedor said:
Thank you so much wmwmw! A few follow-ups:

1. When you say "The method is to subscribe like 10 strategies and replace those that failed", what do you mean by "failed"? What is your definition of a fail?

2. When you say "good strategies longer than 3 years are zero" - what do you mean exactly? For example, here is one that has been around well over 3 years:

https://collective2.com/details/117734561

It has over a 45% annual return, and less than a 25% max drowdown. That would be an absolute winner in my book, far far better than I could ever do! You would consider that a fail? Tough grader!

I see the grid now, thanks, exactly what I needed!

Interesting how your strategy, follow them and when one does bad kick it out, differs from my initial reaction as to what a good strategy might be. Putting the subscription cost aside, let's say you had 10 different strategies that produced a 50% annual return each but each had a 100% drawdown (i.e. it goes completely bust) once every 10 years.

I would put equal amounts into each of those ten strategies, so if I started with $100 I would put $10 in each. In any given years, one of those is likely to go bust, so you are -$10 on that one, but also in any given year the remainders will on average gain $5 each ($10 x 50% return), or $45 totaly (9*$5). So in any given year you could expect to be up 35%. Which is hugely good in my mind, even starting with the very bad 100% drawdown percentage and (apparently) no so great 50% annual return averages (many of those strategies apparently have much, much better results).

I also don't know if just sticking with the single best long-term one is the best way to go - maybe its just been luck that IT hasn't had its bust yet, and some weird set of circumstances are going to come about to cause it to bust. Maybe getting a strategy that has had HUGE (say 100%) annual returns over time, but just had a really, really bad drawdown (50% or more) is the thing to do because it has had its set of weird circumstances hit it already.

But I dunno. Some of those numbers are certainly eye-popping.

The thing about them being able to set up an unlimited number of accounts/strategies, then killing off the 9 out of 10 that did bad or just ok, keeping the 1 that did good, is troubling, that means that "strategy" could have just been 100% luck...

Thanks so much for the help!!!
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It all comes to what you think is a good strategy?
My concept of a good strategy is in my short list.
But everyone has his own criteria.Same for what is a "failed" strategy.

wmwmw · Jun 19, 2022

SoyUnPerdedor said:
Thank you so much wmwmw! A few follow-ups:

1. When you say "The method is to subscribe like 10 strategies and replace those that failed", what do you mean by "failed"? What is your definition of a fail?

2. When you say "good strategies longer than 3 years are zero" - what do you mean exactly? For example, here is one that has been around well over 3 years:

https://collective2.com/details/117734561

It has over a 45% annual return, and less than a 25% max drowdown. That would be an absolute winner in my book, far far better than I could ever do! You would consider that a fail? Tough grader!

I see the grid now, thanks, exactly what I needed!

Interesting how your strategy, follow them and when one does bad kick it out, differs from my initial reaction as to what a good strategy might be. Putting the subscription cost aside, let's say you had 10 different strategies that produced a 50% annual return each but each had a 100% drawdown (i.e. it goes completely bust) once every 10 years.

I would put equal amounts into each of those ten strategies, so if I started with $100 I would put $10 in each. In any given years, one of those is likely to go bust, so you are -$10 on that one, but also in any given year the remainders will on average gain $5 each ($10 x 50% return), or $45 totaly (9*$5). So in any given year you could expect to be up 35%. Which is hugely good in my mind, even starting with the very bad 100% drawdown percentage and (apparently) no so great 50% annual return averages (many of those strategies apparently have much, much better results).

I also don't know if just sticking with the single best long-term one is the best way to go - maybe its just been luck that IT hasn't had its bust yet, and some weird set of circumstances are going to come about to cause it to bust. Maybe getting a strategy that has had HUGE (say 100%) annual returns over time, but just had a really, really bad drawdown (50% or more) is the thing to do because it has had its set of weird circumstances hit it already.

But I dunno. Some of those numbers are certainly eye-popping.

The thing about them being able to set up an unlimited number of accounts/strategies, then killing off the 9 out of 10 that did bad or just ok, keeping the 1 that did good, is troubling, that means that "strategy" could have just been 100% luck...

Thanks so much for the help!!!
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I use grid to search for strategies that were over 1080 days and > 30% annual return and < 30% maximum drawdown, I got none.

So how comes your strategy?

https://collective2.com/details/117734561

SoyUnGanador · Jun 19, 2022

I had no idea why that strategy didn't show up in your search wmwmw, it sure should have! So that one is among the best you've seen, correct?

wmwmw · Jun 20, 2022

SoyUnPerdedor said:
I had no idea why that strategy didn't show up in your search wmwmw, it sure should have! So that one is among the best you've seen, correct?
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That one is the best I have seen in C2.
But not good enough for my concept.

maxinger · Jun 20, 2022

SoyUnPerdedor said:
You are saying those collective2 reports on people's various strategies are fake? How do you know?
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Don't believe what I said.

But do go and try it for yourself.

Pekelo · Jul 13, 2022

Tony Stark said:
https://collective2.com/details/140022552
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Finally hit a snag, sideways/down for the last 4 weeks. From 762K (ATH) to 678K. That is -11%

Tony Stark · Jul 19, 2022

Pekelo said:
Finally hit a snag, sideways/down for the last 4 weeks. From 762K (ATH) to 678K. That is -11%
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Indeed.Now down 15%.Still keeping an eye on it as I find it very intriguing.

earth_imperator · Jul 19, 2022

I was thinking this at C2 is real trading.
But it says "These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations"

And also says "Num Trades = 101"
But below it says "This strategy has placed 163 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. ..."

Why these discrepancies?

Pekelo · Jul 19, 2022

Tony Stark said:
Indeed.Now down 15%.Still keeping an eye on it as I find it very intriguing.
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He is mostly long Puts, the market is in rally mode so... I don't get why someone can't play both sides of the market?