"There is nothing worse than an ignorant person advocating and spreading ignorance." Oh, kids with 4 years of psychology in college are much worse.
We don't have zero savings rate, hell, we've got Social Security, boy, where you been all these years? What has to happen is massive inflation, Democrats cannot lose black votes, they have to keep blacks on either welfare or government jobs, they have to keep their government workers in general happy, they can only borrow and bailout or lose political power... as they slowly strangle the private sector they lose tax revenues and that exacerbates the whole situation and requires more bailout.. it's pretty much over for awhile, it could be so bad that even with control of the public schools system and the popular media they still might not be able to blame anybody else...
.. I thought you were off building a plane ... instead of building another short position ?... hard to stay away from these fun and games isnt it ?
I said I would start building the plane in late November to early December (waiting on the shipment of various parts/kits).... Also, I am still holding Rydex 200% Inverse S&P500 positions I just put on the other day when the ES traded above 1000........have scaled out some but still holding the bulk of this trade. I am also watching several other markets for LONGER term trades as there is more massive economic shifts ahead.
They are much higher now. But they are lower than 1990s-2000s Japan. Debt there went above 100% of GDP, and they had a decade of zero inflation and 1% yields on the 10 year treasuries. The lesson from Japan is that high debt does not mean inflation is inevitable. If credit is sufficiently constrained, then that can swamp any supply issues. One key point is to look at what caused prolonged credit shortage. In both 90s Japan and Depression-era USA, there was huge government deficit spending, and intervention in the free market system, characterised by refusing to let bad institutions fail - especially bad financial institutions. If we follow that path, then one might reasonably expect similar consequences i.e. multiple years of credit shortage, with the resulting stagnating effects on the economy. And so far, it looks like we are following that path to a tee. If that is the playbook, bonds are arguably a great buy, not a short. And that's one scenario very few people in the market are positioned for.