I think it's over for Apple, what do you think?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by lynx, Apr 5, 2010.

  1. lynx


    Personally I think the iPad is going to be a flop. Apple has been getting more and more detached from the reality of what people want and need. In my mind, Jobs' recent decisions are showing some pretty bad judgement. I think they are rooted in ego more then they are in logic.

    The walled-garden concept was discredited with the fall of AOL and Compuserve. I'm referring of course to the app store. I don't think that consumers are going to want
    to give up the ability to buy applications from whomever they please.

    Developers are already getting tired of the capricious approval process and realizing the futility of building a business based on Apple's continued whim. And how smart is it to run a company without direct access to your customers?

    The the success of the iPhone is attributable to the fact that it is first and foremost a PHONE.
    Everybody needs a phone, and if they can get one that is super cool for a little more, then why not? I'm one of the people who's made the app store a success by buying a couple of fun little apps for my phone. But I wouldn't consider using my phone for any real work, it's just too cumbersome and limited.

    In the short term, the biggest problem is price combined with a lack of functionality. We're in the middle of a recession and people have learned the habit of being frugal. Even if we have a quick recovery from here on out, that habit will stick for a year or two more. I don't think that an overpriced toy is going to pull people away from laptops and netbooks which are far more functional. If people are going to pay computer prices (or almost so), I think they are smart enough to want a real computer.

    Now that Windows 7 is out, Apple has missed their chance to take over the business PC market, mainly because they've been focusing on consumer products. They had literally years in which to steal the PC market from Microsoft, and I'm astonished that they squandered the opportunity.

    Market share on mass market consumer products is great but it always turns into race to the bottom in terms of profit margin.

    By the way, I am typing this on my Powerbook :). I used to be a big fan of their products and have been using them since 1994.

    I wouldn't short a chart that looks like this one; the fools have proven over and over again that they dumber than I think they are. But I wouldn't buy it, and I'd definitely get out if you are still long. I got out at around $200, and despite the continued appreciation I feel like I did the right thing.

    One more thing. I've noticed a lack of follow-through from the company that has me puzzled. The Apple TV device is apparently a perfectly reasonable DVR. It seems that they could have really taken on Tivo but they failed to even try. They could have done deals with cable or satellite companies. They could have advertised it more. They could have wound up the press hype machine. It's not super sexy but it could have been a solid business.

    Now tell me, why am I wrong about the continued prospects of this company?
  2. USA Today reports that the first day sales were higher than expected, with analysts predicting between 200,000 and 300,000 units sold on Saturday. The real totals are closer in line to between 600,000 and 700,000.

    Many of the company’s stores were closed for Easter. However, the few stores that were opened reported that they had limited availability of the tablet.

  3. Apple can do no wrong; they're true innovators in an ocean of mediocrity and weak imitators.
  4. Apple hasn't missed the boat at all. It has built an extremely loyal following that continue to be the company's best sales people. The ipad will take the profitable high end netbook market segment away from the Pc.

    The future continues to look bright for apple. The stock has had a parabolic move up. It will undoubtedly correct at some time. Trying to predict when is a losers game.
  5. Well for starters, everything...
  6. I don't know. I haven't bought a single apple product, ever. And my life is just fine.
  7. For those who know NYC there was a bar at the front of the Spring Street Restaurant with a window that had a great view of West Broadway ... sort of ground zero in SOHO. Before it was well known in NY, Origins (cosmetics) opened a store across the street at 420 West Broadway. The store had great "glass" creating a very dramatic visual. It was the proverbial "glass house" one of the best storefronts seen in lower Manhattan at that time. My wife, looking out the window, told me she wanted to walk over and check out the store. I asked what they sold and she told me she did not know.

    I agree with much of what you have posted. And am unimpressed with a product (particularly one in the midst of a "Jobs' Opening" ... think movie not hardware) that has been low-balled so they beat estimates. You are clearly keeping your powder dry (essential) but do not underestimate how far and for how long the consumer can push a product that is technically flawed. I was struck by what one sportscaster said about Tiger and The Masters. He made the point that Tiger is the only player in professional sports that does not have to play his A game to win. No one else in sports can play THEIR B+ game yet still beat major league competitors. Tiger can and to some degree so can Jobs.

    When it comes to fashion in hardware there is Jobs and then there is the rest of the world.
  8. You quoting a article which misquoted the analyst. 600-700k including pre-sales of 250k. Next time use a reliable link: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2362240,00.asp

    We estimate Apple sold between 600-700k iPads (including online pre-orders which started on March 12th) on the first day (4/3)," wrote Munster in a research note. "It took Apple three days to sell a million iPhone 3GS and iPhone 3G's, and 74 days to sell 1m original iPhones. Keep in mind, the majority of sales come on the first day of availability."
  9. My life was pretty much that way up until last year. The iphone convinced me to go ahead a buy a mac. Just having a computer that can utilize its full speed because it doesn't need virus software is reason enough to purchase it. The fact that it can also run windows better than windows on a pc is another.

    I don't know if I will buy an ipad, but I do know it will probably revolutionalize personal computing before it is all said and done.
    #10     Apr 5, 2010