I am confused big time about this thread. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at some of the things Audi has posted and the responses he has got. Here's a few quotes from Audi that clearly show a beginners confusion... ==================================== I've watched thousands of volume bars and have a very good idea of when exhaustion occurs and the potential reversals to follow. As you can see it hasn't really worked for me though. Also, if I do nail the entry, I have NO idea when to exit. I'll trade very discaplined for like 2 or 3 weeks Its true that I've been trying to NAIL the entry to the tick (which I've done many times) but still am getting no where. So it sounds like your saying volume is of no help, I'm finding that out the hard way. A big problem for me in trading the ES is that I really do not trust any type of rigid set up because I think its all bullshit really (nothing better than random) BUT at the same time you want something thats measurable, which is where specific setups are of value. I feel like the way I have been using volume along with time does have some merit but it obviously has not gotten me anywhere. I don't know. I'm pretty lost. ======================================== Of course you're lost Audi as you should be at this stage and you are contradicting yourself like a drunk. You think you have a good idea of when exhaustion occurs and many times nail your entry to the tick but it doesn't work?? You think rigid set ups are random b/s but you want something measurable? Volume and time has merit but it has not got you anywhere and you're lost. Audi, you need to decide it you want to trade a system like in your journal using volume plus RSI divergences with Keltners, which is basically a super simple method that will give you rollercoaster results OR Learn to trade and that means learning set ups. At the moment you have no idea how to trade Time and ditto for Volume. You're starting point for intraday trading is to learn PA and then if you wish to learn Volume, study it properly by getting some study materials. Trading at the 1 min level is very advanced and you are not even at a basic level. All you have is a method that anyone with a cursory explanation to charting sw could devise in a few hours and it's been done a zillion times. And it always ends up the same - pretty lost!
Congratulations, you have just learned the valuable lesson that efficient markets are extremely difficult to trade. Now take what you've learned and move on to greener pastures.
Dont trade the ES myself, but from i have read looking at internals is supposed provide a good edge, TICK TRIN etc
I'd have to really agree with the guy who said to use longer timeframes. I'm still a total newb but just switching from a 1 min. to 15 min. chart made a world of difference. Cuts out alot of the fake signals. And you dont get extra credit for timing a reversal of direction perfectly (well ok maybe you do end up a few bucks ahead.) I just wait for a trend to be confirmed, ride it until i see any kind of weakness then sell/buy one contract and ride the other with a fairly liberal trailingstop.
I like the bollinger bands in the 1min. time frame to get a better idea of what price i want to enter, the MACD histogram and RSIwilder on the 15 min. chart to get a wider view of direction, and of course simple resistance and support levels in anything from the 1 min. to 1 hour timeframes.
Reading you post I found myself marveling how I would have expressed my trading problems in the same way just a few monthâs ago Recently I have become profitable so let me share how I overcame some of the problems you mentioned Reversal setups are a art unto themselves you can master that but if your head is not In the market and you are just looking for your setup once your in the market you are lost Suggestion 1 Get out of the es move to the ym the spread is smaller only reason to trade es is for size Suggestion 2 If you mastered a setup and itâs secret little subtleties. Go with 2 lots Let go of one once you gained enough so that even if on the second one the market Goes back and hits the stop lose you still brake even. Then set a ATR based target for the second lot and either you get it or you brake even IF THIS DOES NOT WORK FOR YOU IT MEANS YOUR SETUP OR EDGE IS REALLY JUST AN ILLUSION Donât be scared to find out the truth. An edge can always found- how to use it is the trick Suggestion 3 -more important then 2 as important as 1 Trade a higher time frame at least 10 minutes Thatâs right not 5 but 10. You get less setups but when you are right they go for more. You then watch the market more and get a feel for the price action And become more then just a setup hunter you become a trader. Suddenly you just KNOW How many ticks to hold out for no technical analysis just a intuition that comes with actually following the market instead of setup hunting The good news is if you have been braking even you are already head of the game most lose their pants. I was having the same issues. I got out of the es and moved to higher time frame and I am making a living and thank god even though Iâm an atheist You sound like you are on your way. You can and will do it!
Basically, you have no edge and you have no setup that works so it's understandable that you don't trust it. I'm still curious why you were trying to nail the reversal entry. Was it to keep a small stop because you can't afford a bigger stop loss? If so then moving to the bigger time frames won't help you. You would have to endure bigger swings on the 5-15 minute frames. Are you using support/resistance? Floor pivots, fibs, trend lines ??? How long have you studied the ES? Unless you have an edge the bots are going to have you for lunch. You would be better off trading the NQ to start. Less whippage than both the YM and ES.
Actually if the op really wants a direction, a possible alternative is to trade SPY with small size. If you check it out, you will see that trading a hundred SPY you can get some experience, and not get hurt too bad along the way. If the method your using isn't working you could take a look at this one by "Donkee"...he's making money with it and it might translate over to SPY without too much effort. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=162375 Here is an interesting article that you could use as the basis for a trading edge (you'll need to do your own backup research). http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/wmgame/02212006-49544.cfm Hope this gets you thinking about alternatives Best
Let's think. What are bots good at? If there is a pattern than gives you an edge, how long will it take for a server farm with 64 processors per server to try 1,000,000,000 patterns for the last 100 days and find your pattern? You can't win that game. You have to use your entire brain all the time from 7 AM till you can. Tick by tick till you see an opportunity. Not based on a pattern but on an understating of what is going on. Bots don't know what is going on.