For the life of me, I can't figure out a way to go about it. I've focused on volume as a way to give me a slight edge. What else is there? I've watched thousands of volume bars and have a very good idea of when exhaustion occurs and the potential reversals to follow. As you can see it hasn't really worked for me though. The problem is you never really know when to hold while price dances around your entry because the exhaustion could be a pause before the next leg down/up or it may not be BUT price dances around your entry many times before you find out. Also, if I do nail the entry, I have NO idea when to exit. Some times I exit for a point and it turns out to be a good trade other times I should have held for 2 or 3 points but didn't. Then I decide to hold for at least a couple points and just watch profit disapear when price goes back to my entry and I exit at break even. I'll trade very discaplined for like 2 or 3 weeks and find myself at break even or barely up. You can see how this is not conducive to earning money over the long term. I don't know how the hell you guys do it.
That was your first mistake. Yep ... and you aren't the only one. Someth'in like that. Believe it or not, you just made the best argument around for not using volume, but rather the dominant trend of the market to daytrade. Yep, it's really tough ... and even though being able to identify the dominant trend of the market is (IMHO) a prerequiste to good trading, there is no gauranatee you will be able to capitalize on that information. For the longer-term players, trends are easy to see (in hindsight). The trick is to be able to catch the (new) trend as it is beginning and hope to hold on to a runner. Not very many (if any) have proven they can do it over the short-term. For those that try, the trick for this type of trading is to trade that self-same "dominant trend" when price momentum is moving in the same direction. IOW, to try to determine when the momentum of price is moving in the same direction as the dominant trend and trade it intra-day. Good Luck, don't give up.
Here's a big hint, may not make huge sense right now but do enough work with it and you'll see the big picture: It way LESS about timing the ES and way MORE about being right. (look back over all your trades and see how they played out)
Sounds interesting, but I don't follow. Its true that I've been trying to NAIL the entry to the tick (which I've done many times) but still am getting no where.
1) Set your "sights" higher. Change your username to Bentley, Ferrari or Lambo. 2) Focus on price bars instead of or in addition to the volume bars. 3) Develop your own indicator that somehow defines trend direction for you in the time frame you are trading in. 4) Try to extend your time horizon and profit objective so that you're not tiring yourself with excessive decision-making from daytrading. 5) Identify critical times of the day when you believe the market behaves more "predictably" and then trade more aggressively instead of waiting for "random" signals.
There are lots who argue for-and-against, but I think it's more important to be able to: (i) consistently find the major trend of any market you are trading. (ii) learn how to trade with that dominant trend (this will show you the Buyer/Seller and Support/Resistance relationships), to a tee. (iii) after learning how to trade with the trend, you can learn how to trade counter trend if you like, but it offers far less profit potential, greater risk:reward, and the market will never "rescue" a position. Whereas, if you are trading with the trend, you can make a bad entry, stretch your stop, average-in, etc., and still come out with a good profit on the trade. Until that trend changes, of course!
If you want too much or if you don't risk enough, it won't work. How do you know how much to take and how much to bet?