I think I have a winning strategy. What can I do with it?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by small_el_trader, Oct 31, 2017.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    Baron posted the only advice you'll ever need at this point. Heed it. It was the first response to this thread. Just listen to the Baron duder, he is sneaky smart.
     
    #41     Nov 2, 2017
  2. Yes, I have considered the possibility that markets can change and that I can lose money. Don't worry, I'll be the first to go bankrupt if I'm wrong.
     
    #42     Nov 2, 2017
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    If you backtested 10 years including 2008, your system should be robust enough to handle potential downturns. So, don't give up.

    One word of caution: If you are running a fund, you are not the one going bankrupt. So, when the day comes, treat other people's money with the utmost care and respect, not with your current mindset.

    Good luck and best wishes.
     
    #43     Nov 2, 2017
    Van_der_Voort_4 and userque like this.
  4. sle

    sle

    My questions would be along the same lines I'd ask myself about a strategy.

    risk: how correlated are you with the market? do you only go long or do you go short too? what are your transaction costs? in total, how many trades where there (irl and in the backtest), what was the average return and standard deviation of these returns (so you can estimate significance)?

    diversification/alpha: in your backtest, how many unique names were selected by your screen? what is so special about these names? is the name selection based on your personal process or is it formulaic? is it based on some sort of information that's hard to come by or is it something that people have not thought of?

    strategy faults: are you using any information outside of the market prices and history? if yes, is it reliably delivered and your backtest is not an artifact of information delay? any other potential for look-ahead bias? how many free parameters does your strategy have?

    If you have done the usual tests and it still performs, you should make a presentation and, as has been suggested, have a chat with a bunch of people. Since you don't appear to have any cross-sectional diversification and doing a fairly small number of trades, people will be rightfully skeptical about the whole thing.
     
    #44     Nov 2, 2017
    Simples likes this.
  5. Truth_

    Truth_

    Thought I had answered very similar questions before. There seems to be all sorts of winning strategies available on the interwebs, to bad they are all secret.

    Raise capital, use strategy, make TV commercial to sell strategy, profit.

    If you wanted money from me to invest:

    Question #1: Have you completed 300 or more live round trip trades? Not asking about the time span, how many round trips on a live account? Show proof.

    Question #2: What was the expectancy and maximum draw down actually encountered? Show proof.

    Question #3: Based on your actual trading history of 300+ trades, not your theoretical model, what is your risk of ruin at 100,000 trades? Show proof.

    I have another hundred or so other questions but suspect 1, 2, 3 is enough to start.


    And also answered it here:


    Yup same story, different day.
     
    #45     Nov 3, 2017
    777 and Van_der_Voort_4 like this.
  6. Quiet1

    Quiet1

    I do recommend registering at fundseeder. It's quite educational to see all those real-money performance histories and stats and compare them to your own.
     
    #46     Nov 3, 2017
  7. tomorton

    tomorton


    What I mean is - why these four stocks?
     
    #47     Nov 3, 2017
  8. CALLumbus

    CALLumbus

    I just selected them because everybody knows them, likes them... so they have to be good, ok ?
     
    #48     Nov 3, 2017
  9. CALLumbus

    CALLumbus

    I will, if people stop taking my stuff serious and stop quoting my nonsense.
     
    #49     Nov 3, 2017
  10. tomorton

    tomorton


    That's worked out OK for you, but how will you take it forward from here? What if 1 or 2 or all these shares start going down?
     
    #50     Nov 3, 2017