Hey you're not going to get any recognition. In the real world no one will use it as evidence. I tried and it didn't work even when I posted this: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prediction-based-trading.351176/page-38
Why does he necessarily have to rule it out? If the market goes bull to the tune of 10% over a period, but his foes bull to the tune of 30% over that same period, I'd want to know.
I am actually impressed. Well done! (Probably because I wrote that I am impressed, now people think that i am you writing from another account)
I'd agree that you'd not want to publish your idea if it works. The typical academic journal referee wouldn't appreciate it anyway. It's like casting pearls before swine. Years ago, when I was in grad school in NYC, a Wall Street friend always told me to keep my best stock-related ideas to myself rather than try to publish them.
Opening a position right before an earnings announcement and holding through said announcement- I love your daredevil spirit. Did you notice WMT,HD and LOW's recent EA's? Hope it's not a large position in the event you have to bail.
50 trades and less than 6 months of data is not significant proof. You need years of data and probably thousands of trades.
How do you plan on getting recognition with an anonymous screen handle, even if you happen to be predominantly right about your prediction claims? And out of curiosity, what is your dissertation topic gonna be if this one, which you won't publish, is that much more promising and potentially more rewarding?
I saw a guy on Collective2 with a trading system with a very high win rate above 80% that does the same thing except he Shorts stocks before earnings and exits afterwards. It seems like a lot of times, the pricing is already built into the stock before earnings and then it'll dump after.