I wasn't counting overnight session. If you look at day session, I was right. And I DID say it was a SHORT PLAY.
Doodi, oft times you'd see ES trading UP overnight 5-10 points and then going down, or the opposite. Overnight often has little effect on day session.
If true = 100% correct all of the time, then it IS true. Overnight session often has little effect on day session. Some times it does, some times it doesn't. But you can't make a rule for yourself that, if overnight > down = day > down, or vice versa. Try trading on that the past 3-4 weeks. edit...yep, "often" is the key work there.
I didn't say anything about only using the overnight data the way you've described below. This is just ONE way in which you have seen data and tried to find correlations. There are other ways in which the overnight data, combined with an already profitable approach, refines entries and makes a system even better.
'if overnight > down = day > down, or vice versa' can you expand on this a little, what do you mean by down.
How about markets need to break previous lows for continued selling and previous highs for continued buying or else you will get a reversal of previous trend. Of course this is general information so you would use your own systems to tell you exactly when to get in or out.