I think a very nasty down month is coming

sometime within the first 6 months of next year

probably the first 3

I am sidelining myself and waiting

I think once all the rate cuts, mortgage freezes, siv bailout talks, etc etc all fail to show any real improvements in of any of the economic data, the market is going to acknowledge reality

and then we are going to go down hard..... expecting 1350 on ES to get taken out downside

then I will make my trades, anyways thats what im waiting for

which brings me to a related question, any "technicians" here who would venture to guess where the bottom is (on a weekly basis) if 1350 on ES/SP500 gets taken out?

 

How much will the market go up while you wait for it to go down?

 

I think you are right, and hold the same opinion which makes me wonder if its going to happen either much sooner or later than either of us think.

 

Question is... who will have the balls once we really come down to 1350. Likely we'd only going to go there with a new batch of apocalyptic news and monstrous downside volume. Takes brass balls to go all out long into that kind of backdrop.

 

Is a 50 bp move in the Fed priced in or a 25? I think that will obviously be a great catalyst for your move.

 

Plenty of time between now and then. That's a long break to take, although you might be correct!

 

buy these bond selloffs in the meanwhile.
4.0% yield smells oh so sweet.


haha..

 

Both are priced in, .25 and the markets may take a 2% drop.

 

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/policy/fedfunds/Index.cfm

Click on the second one to see what the market probability is for each rate cut. There's a slight chance of 75bps:eek: