Oil will go to $70 by the end of this year. Right now its nice out. By Monday it will seem like we stepped into the freezer. I have seen this many times before on the east coast, many many times. One day it looks real nice out and then the next week the ground is covered in snow. Oil to 70 by years end. I have faith in Opec to do whats right for their wallet. They are not a public service organization.
Economy is tanking quickly. I'm reducing my portfolio more when I get the right exits. U.S. Manufacturing Contracts in November By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: December 1, 2006 Filed at 11:11 a.m. ET NEW YORK (AP) -- The housing slump took a bite out of the nation's manufacturing sector, which in November contracted for the first time in more than three years, a trade group said Friday. Industries such as wood, paper, furniture and appliances all were flat or slipped last month, according to the Institute for Supply Management, based in Tempe, Ariz. In a report that points to a worrisome trend for the economy and for jobs, ISM said its manufacturing index registered 49.5 in November, behind October's reading of 51.2. The last time the sector contracted was in April 2003. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The sector had been growing for 41 consecutive months. November's index came in below the average analyst expectation for a reading of 52. The index was one of two troublesome economic reports Friday. The Commerce Department said construction activity in October plummeted by the largest amount since 2001, and home building fell for the seventh month in a row. Both reports raised concerns that the economy may be in for a hard landing. Stock prices fell in early trading Friday on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials fell 53.36, or 0.44 percent, to 12,168.57, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 23.72, nearly 1 percent, to 2,408.05. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index sank 7.11, or 0.51 percent, to 1,393.52. Bond prices rose after the two reports, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 4.42 percent. The ISM report said that employment in the manufacturing sector shrank in November, with a 49.2 reading compared with 50.8 in October. The new orders index fell to 48.7 in November, compared with 52.1 in October. The production index also contracted, dropping to 48.5 from 51.9 last month. The prices paid index rose to 53.5, after falling to 47 in October. The prices paid index reflects raw materials costs to manufacturers. Prices had been falling until recently, after oil prices fell about 20 percent since the summer but have rebounded in the past few weeks. Pressure from raw materials prices is nothing new, said Mary Brebard, vice president of investor relations at auto parts supplier BorgWarner Inc. BorgWarner's operations are protected to some extent from the downturn in the U.S. by significant overseas operations, but in September the company still lowered its outlook and said it would lay off 850 workers due to cuts in North American auto production. The ISM and construction spending reports could be more pieces of the economic puzzle that would guide the Federal Reserve to either keep interest rates level, or perhaps cut short-term interest rates sooner than analysts were expecting. The Fed raised rates for the 17th consecutive time in June, but have held them at 5.25 percent since then. While the overall manufacturing sector contracted, eight industries reported growth in November. They included apparel and leather; plastics and rubber; primary metals; food, beverage and tobacco; computer and electronic products; printing; chemical products and the miscellaneous category.
I stand by my recommendation to sell all of it. Might as well stand there with your cash and wait for the train wreck. Then buy when the dust settles. It will pull back whether it be a day or a month or 6 months. When it does wreck, then there will be lots of upside. I dont see the upside in the market right now except in the energy sector and a select few other companies. If there is no obvious values in the market, then take your loot, go on vacation and come back to fight another day.
Art Hogan what an idiot. Just love these schmucks who crawl out from under their rock to say this is just a friday thing and back up the truck monday. Of course it's much deeper than that, the very pillars of this rally are being called into question. I originally thought it would take two weeks to shake this out, I'm thinking a few more days now. This would be a second weekly close down for stocks I believe, the Dollar is at a 14 year low-- to buy something in Europe is 30% more expensive than 5 years ago... Iraq is self destructing. And for the first time that I can remember US weakness is not spreading into Europe at all. That builds even more a case for foreign equities but it's also scary, we are no longer the top dog that drives everything economically. If China is working, Europe should be fine. So their tourists come here- good for hotels! We stop travelling over there bad for airlines. It's a mixed up world and we have to sit back and see how much of this run up has been a concentrated effort by funds to get their numbers up. Now that there books closed last Friday, there is little impetus for anyone to buy. Kramer says it's all a mirage back up the truck, Hogan the same, CNBC breathlessly screams we are paring our losses and off our lows all with the Naz down 24! When I kept a trading journal and published an newsletter in the go go days of tech I called all my entries " Off Our Lows "because I heard that phrase parroted every day... some people never learn. Eliot Wavers take heart there should still be 1 more run up... but when?