That's a good point. It's definitely a risk. Right now, though, I have made a personal assessment of whether the upside potential outweighs the risk to the downside, both in term of probability - and magnitude. I have no clue what will happen. We could see in retrospect, 2 years from now, that this was the 5th inning, and not the 9th. There are just too many structural issues with the U.S. economy, IMO, to make that a likely scenario. I don't know how stocks like PD, which are up 1200%, or Apple, up 900%, or GS, up, what, 1100%, can go much higher. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time. Before I did this - I came to a firm conclusion that I could live with myself even if the upside is greater than I had the capacity to currently acknowledge.
How does "I went long 60% at the open today" mesh with your view? Because you position is identical to someone who is pretty bullish and just went 60% long at these prices. You say you have never felt more confident about mass redemptions, yet you half more than half your assets long equities at the highs of the year. If you are really that sure, you should be either totally flat, net short, or long some puts.
I was only about 60% in equities when I closed 40% of my position. So, I'm not 36% in equities, rather than 60%. Someone bullish would probably want to be 80% vested.
Took this off of a website today... Learn to Walk Away "When a stock is peaking, an investor runs the serious risk of missing the top area altogether if he tries to stretch winnings too far. Once a stock stops rising and starts declining, the difficulty of selling it becomes even greater. Giving up points that have already melted away is more painful than imagining giving up points of paper profit that have not yet been created. Trader's mental state heads south with the stock price, weakening his decision-making abilities. Keep in mind that when the price objective is reached, the best policy is to sell at market and walk away and don't look at the quotes once the stock is sold."
Pardon the rant! Things are coming to a head, you can feel it. Yesterday sucked for me hard> I hate myself when I chase my ideas up a ladder, especially in a market I am not feeling good about. The Worker Productivity is really the biggest issue now, when the next revision comes out I'm fairly sure mutual fund managers are going to get spooked. Until then will they jam their accounts up with stocks to look good at end of year? Or will it be a race to the door? Retail in the real world sucks now. The stocks are going to get crushed. Manufacturing stocks and steel stocks are racing ahead into a slowdown! Yesterday I knew a big sell off was coming, it felt just like the old days ,but it came early... and there was more than enough time for the bulls to regroup. I suspect todays fade will come in the 3:00pm- close part of the day. Iraq- what can be said? The British are going to announce their pull out soon, could some timetable for US exit help the market? It's a hope. Alcan CEO says he might get into the titanium market it's got me eyeing a stock I hate TIE. It's starting to be that kind of a market. Sigma Designs anyone? Still, we press on- Consider 8% of the Naz's overall 10% gain this year came in the LAST TWO MONTHS, much of it kickstarted by this unwavering enthusiasm for the consumer based on of all things lower gas! What a farce! The consumer cares about his home's value, the 1 million dollar item on his balance sheet not his $3 a gallon for gas. Oil of course is RIGHT BACK UP, as we all knew it would be and despite WARM weather. Can you imagine if mother nature had given the East Coast a tough time this year-- oil could be $70. We are in a wobble stage right now- stocks have run ahead on a bunch of assumptions that appear to me melting away, it's very much turning into a cliffhanger for the end of year....
Bfffft another almost meaningless number Markets green again Dont dwell on these numbers. 99% of them dont have much affect on trading activity. Housing number, CPI, ect are over hyped. They are used mainly for statistical purposses and record keeping. Thye have little if any bearing on the markets.