I see tons of put buyers and tail hedgers in the equity index markets

Extreme negativity is capturing the minds of "professional asset managers". Media is playing doldrums.

Put/call ratios at extremes for days and weeks ( CBOE, ISE). Interbank hedging, too.

Tail hedging like crazy.

CONCLUSION: buy, buy, buy.

 

Have to agree, as bearish as I am I think a bottom is close by, still think though the SPX makes it to the 1050 and bounces hard but I think before that there is a rally in the making. I am short the VIX right now, think it comes back in between the 30-35 area!

Market is trying to push and pull and find a direction, hopefully it finds one before the close! Which ever way it is its going to be a substantial move in my opinion!

 

This is how 2008 started. Selling got worse. When DJIA is up and down 500 points every other day, how can anybody be taken serious when talking about buying. This is why this idiot Kass looks, well, like an idiot.

 

I won't call holding 3x levered long ETFs bearish...

 

i came in pretty short today
put a long hedge on, fully expecting an expiration rally
took it off, this is pretty weak sauce imo

 

BEST INDICATOR:

If he is still a holder of HP shares now, this drop only adds to Paulson's migraine. Paulson's flagship Advantage Plus Fund has plummeted 34% this year through the first two weeks of August, according to a CNBC report late Wednesday.

 

Will this call be better than some of your FX calls? :eek:

 

ES 20 day historical vol 45.8%, current VIX 41.8%.
Sep ATM straddle trading about 35.8% vol.
Next week’s straddle trading around 52 while we have had bigger ranges than that most days for a couple weeks.

There is currently a little fear, nothing close to actual fear. We already got the drop in the market and pop in vol I posted I was looking for, so at this point I am as clueless as anyone, but if you don’t think we can see a 50 VIX then I would suggest you be careful with that opinion.

 

The only thing lookin decent in this limp bounce is commodities, I like the grains myself. They will probably all sell again in this sh"t storm. But when the dust settles, it is evident to me, money wants out of paper and into commodities even in the face of slowdowns. Bonds look safe, but their not. I'd leave the es alone, more money elsewhere on good days.

 

Best trade of next week:
sell the ES 1076.75 (if we get there of course)
think of all the stops that are there