I predict 12.6% Unemployment.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by noob_trad3r, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. 10.2 now

    1 .2
    2 .2
    3 .2
    4 .2
    5 .2
    6 .2
    7 .2
    8 .2
    9 .2
    10 .2
    11 .2
    12 .2

    Total 12.2% 2010 (12/2010)

    I used excel to run a model.
  2. logikos


    Did you factor in public sector job losses that are bound to occur going forward and states cannot keep holding all their workers when they are nearing bankruptcy?
  3. The way the gov't reports its stats, 12.6% would be like a real world 22% to 24%, right?

  4. According to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, the current REAL unemployment rate is already 22%!
  5. Why is a blind prediction of any interest?
  6. PPT


    I know they don't count people that have fallen off and don't look for a job, but to me that makes very little sense.

    Or, can we call those people something else...

    10% unemployment
    15% not working, gave up


    why do i need this information?

    yea, i don't...but i'm sick of all the econ. number manipulated
  7. logikos


    Who really trusts these figures anyway?

    Today's numbers were exclusively in private sector. Public sector jobs were virtually unchanged. So, the stimulus money has been "saving" jobs, but for how long?

    There is no wealth creation going on anywhere. It's all about robbing future generations to make payroll today!
  8. It is not a blind prediction. I ran a model in excel to get this number.
  9. logikos


    The probability is hits 12.6% is pretty high on it's way to 15%.
  10. the1


    Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like your model just adds 1 at each iteration, with a starting point of 1.2.

    #10     Nov 6, 2009