<!-- Start of Yahoo! Finance code --> <iframe allowtransparency="true" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://api.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/NYX/badge;chart=1y;quote/HTML?AppID=a_J46Uexs3HEzlc2_x7khs.HEOE-&sig=CaIqBvUw1kXjCuUv4isMGwxAkIY-&t=1182196241074" width="300px" height="454px"><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Finance</a><br/><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NYX/">Quote for NYX/</a></iframe> <!-- End of Yahoo! Finance code --> You have to think like a institutional trader. An institutional trader who has size cant simply liquidate their position overnight. Instead, they have to plan way ahead of the crowd. Thus when you see the lower highs and lower lows over a period of months, you know that they are exiting. Like the Dow Jones theory suggests, the smart money exits first and then follows the dumb money. The dumb money will usually exit at the very last minute causing a huge wave down on high volume which can clearly be seen on the chart. I still feel this will get to the 50s. Just a matter of time. There will be pivots up in the meantime, but it will never hit a higher high and will always hit the lower low. Look at my yahoo chart and you can see what is happening.
I appreciate the feedback... Keep it up as you come across different trades, I enjoy learning and seeing the trades as you do, if you start any new threads email, and let me know... Thanks again, JC
A short on this would still be working. We're getting close to window-dressing territory on the calendar now, and this is trading at its lowest levels for the quarter, which means ye average fund manager is going to be looking to rid himself of this if he's got it in his holdings, especially if it's in his top ten. I don't know if it's going to the 50's over the next month, but as I've noted, I'll settle for an opportunity to cover at somewhere between 75 and 76. I'm pretty sure I'll get it.
Here is what I am observing. Everyday the last 5 days this has opened up with a surge to the downside. I am one of those geeks that likes to sit here studying the tape relentlessly. Somehow I get the feeling that someone has a big position and they use the morning strength to sell part of their position. Each morning you see increased volume to the downside followed by a modest afternoon retracement. After 5 down days, Im expecting for there to be a few up days and a modest retracement. However, if on the 6th day there is additional downside then the true colors are showing. Someone wants out and its for a reason. If I see more weakness tommorrow, then I will be more convinced that we will see the 50s in the future.
I also wanted to point out a few things on this chart where someone is waving a big flag that says "short me". - busted through 50-200 day moving averages - way below the 40 week moving average - busted right through the trend lines on the chart - someone is obviously wanting an exit out of their position - Goldman upgrades the stock. BIG WARNING. BIG BIG WARNING. My experience is that Goldman upgrades and downgrades are always suspect. I have seen Goldman upgrade a stock and then it go lower, then downgrade the stock and watch it go much higher. They have their own reasons for doing things like helping their clients exit out of positions or short positions or whatever. Maybe their trading department is benefiting somehow. I would feel comfortable on a long term short with NYX.
Price is now busting down through the trap doors. Its amazing how people were so willing to pay 100+ for this months ago and soon it will be half that price.
I posted on some other thread that I was going to play today for a bounce, and that's working out so far. Back to shorting tomorrow, unless it really flies this afternoon.