The peak oil calculations are possible if you can realistically predict the future. It's is an ever changing calculation bases on (i think) consumption estimates and predictions and production estimates and predictions. Good luck on being accurate.
This Gulf of Mexico disaster does have a point in peak oil theory though, actually proving all this peak oil theory was (and is) just a brain drain to steal more money for gas from public. Why? Very simple - don't you remember 2-3 yrs ago - every rumour somehow related to oil pumps over the world was causing oil prices spike to the sky - don't you remember - riots in Nigeria, hurrican in Gulf of Mexico, war threat in Persian Gulf - yahoo, ride oil, ride, we're in oil peak.. And now what? Huge oil well polluting , US gov going (or already done) to stop whole offshore oil wells in GoM , and what about oil, it doesn't hit even $80 - what happened? Solar and wind power, GM Volt and what other bullshit replaced that? Or, may be, if not this BP well accident, the oil prices would be already under $50-60 ? May be qui bono is a good question here, considering equipment makers reported it was no problem with equipment, which has already strong record under much harsher conditions? Don't forget, if oil prices go down - even to $40-50 - next day after it happens all solar-wind-electrocars-moth...ers industry starts BK free falling and consumers over the world will breath to rest , paying less for lot of products - there are lot of products in our world bear in gas prices.